I would hope that 2" foam can resist more transfer than bubble in an UNSEALED application, since it is 1-3/4" thicker. Now do a real test under a couple of actual slabs with a properly sealed bubble barrier vs. 2" foam. Run all the calcs you want to on paper but the proof is in the pudding...
It does seem clear! Since the ground was still frozen, the bubble wrap obviously kept more heat from getting to the ground. The more heat that passes through the insulation-the less effective it is. Don't need an engineering degree to figure that out.
I have used 2" XPS many times but if you want to get a thermal seal as well as a condensation and radon barrier, you must also install plastic sheeting befor the 2" XPS. I recently started using a product by Ecofoil.com called Ultra Under Concrete Barrier. It is a new version of the...