fear of robots in manufacturing

[coldfoot_luke]

Anyone here work in manufacturing?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/u-s-manufacturing-only-has-jobs-for-the-skilled-few.html

I'm sick and tired of reading about this fear that robots are going to replace semi-skilled labor and the trades. These articles are written by people that wouldn't know the difference between a nail and a screw.

I work in manufacturing, we use automation and simple robots, but we still need a breathing human to design it, periodically inspect it, do maintenance and repair, operate it, program it, set it up and make quality adjustments, etc...

And now I've gotten involved in recruiting for work, and for the life of me we can't find good welders, millwrights, etc. Seems like a lot of young people are afraid to get into a trade because of the mainstream fear of robots taking their jobs in the future.

Anyone relate?

 

[wrench409]

I will fear them when they learn to replicate.


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[TAMPAGT07]

I think robots/computers have replaced millions of jobs in manufacturing....Will they ever replace ALL jobs? Probably not, but I do believe that people should fear machines...

 

[JimVonBaden]

I think robots/computers have replaced millions of jobs in manufacturing....Will they ever replace ALL jobs? Probably not, but I do believe that people should fear machines...

I only fear these!

Jim

 

[benjamintmiller]

And now I've gotten involved in recruiting for work, and for the life of me we can't find good welders, millwrights, etc

You mean you can't find good people at the price you want to pay.

Try doubling the salaries you're offering and see how quickly you attract good people.

 

[Buckgnarly]

I thought old people were afraid of the robots.....

http://www.robotcombat.com/video_oldglory_hi.html

 

[A_Pmech]

I'm sick and tired of reading about this fear that robots are going to replace semi-skilled labor and the trades. These articles are written by people that wouldn't know the difference between a nail and a screw.

In general, it takes far fewer warm bodies on the production floor to produce an equivalent part or product than it did 50 years ago. However, in general, many products have become more complex. To a degree, these factors balance, but not always.

The greatest threat to manufacturing employment is, has been and will continue to be off-shoring to third-world countries.

And now I've gotten involved in recruiting for work, and for the life of me we can't find good welders, millwrights, etc. Seems like a lot of young people are afraid to get into a trade because of the mainstream fear of robots taking their jobs in the future.

Anyone relate?

Young people aren't afraid of robots, they're afraid of outsourcing. Ten years ago the chant was "Go to college, get a degree, have a knowledge worker job safe from outsourcing." Well, as we can see today, those jobs are even easier to outsource thanks to the internet. Besides, China has more honors students than we have students in total!

Another reason why young people are shying away from manufacturing is because, in general, it doesn't pay worth a damn. In addition, the culture in this country is such that manufacturing is considered beneath reasonably intelligent people. "Johnny, why do you want to get your hands greasy when you can be a stock broker and work in the ever-growing financial services sector?" It's hard to attract intelligent and resourceful help when you can't or won't pay them well and provide them with opportunities for advancement.

The real problem is that, as a country, we have lost our way. Our manufacturing economy has been turned into a financial services economy which is very volatile and of dubious long-term value. Until we decide to re-focus our energy on producing things of value, you can expect that young people will shy away from manufacturing.

 

[TAMPAGT07]

I only fear these!

Jim

I'm worried more about the liquid metal fukkers...(Especially that hot one in the last Terminator movie..If she came after me I would be toast..).I can't seem to get my hands on a tanker full of liquid nitrogen to keep them at bay...

 

[dieselgarage]

That article is pure ****. The biggest factors in the next generations of workers not heading for manufacturing jobs is. The School Systems, Parents and Grandparents. They all think that manufacturing is still a dirty, low skill, low pay way to make a living. There for they preach everyone needs 4 year degree. The schools have fostered this mentality with doing away with what I call the industrial arts programs. And replaced those credits with credits that only lead students toward a 4 year school. Not to enter the work field or a Technical School. The truth is not every student should go on to a 4 year college. Lots of 4 year grads sitting on the couch because they can't find a job. Ya right they have no skills to work with their hands. That is why they can't find a job. But as educators, Parents and Grandparents are totally uneducated about opportunities in manufacturing. Ya your grandfather stood in the corner for 40 years with a file in his hand taking flash off of castings. I want more than that for you you need to go to a 4 year school. That is what parents and Grandparent think manufacturing still is today. I'm currently putting together a county wide group of manufactures to re-brand "blue color jobs" to "gold collar careers". Working hand in hand with the Tech Schools, High schools and School boards.
Studies have shown the next workers are all within 20 mile radius of your our facility. That is what we have available so we better make sure we as employers do our best to make them what we need in the future. While also meeting the financial and growth needs of the next wave of workers. So you can sit back and do nothing or get out and make sure you are actively promoting manufacturing jobs. Or just whine about the lack of people with the skills you need to keep your manufacturing operation going.
The first week in October every year is "Manufacturing Week". We hosted 70 high school students to 5 different local manufactures to expose them to other opportunities available after high school beyond the brain washing they currently are getting. It was a huge success for the students.

 

[metal4130]

I work in manufacturing, specifically assembly. If I could replace most all the line workers with robots I sure as hell would try.

 

[tstaude]

That article is pure ****. The biggest factors in the next generations of workers not heading for manufacturing jobs is. The School Systems, Parents and Grandparents. They all think that manufacturing is still a dirty, low skill, low pay way to make a living. There for they preach everyone needs 4 year degree. The schools have fostered this mentality with doing away with what I call the industrial arts programs. And replaced those credits with credits that only lead students toward a 4 year school. Not to enter the work field or a Technical School. The truth is not every student should go on to a 4 year college. Lots of 4 year grads sitting on the couch because they can't find a job. Ya right they have no skills to work with their hands. That is why they can't find a job. But as educators, Parents and Grandparents are totally uneducated about opportunities in manufacturing. Ya your grandfather stood in the corner for 40 years with a file in his hand taking flash off of castings. I want more than that for you you need to go to a 4 year school. That is what parents and Grandparent think manufacturing still is today. I'm currently putting together a county wide group of manufactures to re-brand "blue color jobs" to "gold collar careers". Working hand in hand with the Tech Schools, High schools and School boards.
Studies have shown the next workers are all within 20 mile radius of your our facility. That is what we have available so we better make sure we as employers do our best to make them what we need in the future. While also meeting the financial and growth needs of the next wave of workers. So you can sit back and do nothing or get out and make sure you are actively promoting manufacturing jobs. Or just whine about the lack of people with the skills you need to keep your manufacturing operation going.
The first week in October every year is "Manufacturing Week". We hosted 70 high school students to 5 different local manufactures to expose them to other opportunities available after high school beyond the brain washing they currently are getting. It was a huge success for the students.

AMEN!
I have been working in the foundry business for almost a decade now, and robots are the ONLY way to go. They are not replacing people, but rather helping us keep jobs here by being more efficient.
Not to mention the size of investment castings we make would be impossible to shell by hand.
Not everyone needs a four year degree....or the debt!

 

[JakeKohl]

Low wage labor vs. automation isn't about exchanging people for robots - it's about being smarter at advanced manufacturing so we can realize efficiency and cost-savings by doing more with the same resources. Advanced manufacturing still requires people to design, create, and maintain these systems but they require a great degree of skill and creativity. This is the next step in our cultural and technological evolution and is the direction our country (US) has been leading the way toward for decades. However, our crumbling, and increasingly expensive, education systems are threatening to leave us stuck in no-man's-land between a low wage mass production environment and an automated high technology environment. Without trained and skilled people to create these systems and find new and leading-edge ways to use these technologies we will be trapped and the world will catch up and pass us.

Automation doesn't simply "replace people" but there are important cultural and educational factors that need to keep up so that automation can be our next opportunity to lead.

 

[raddksn]

You mean you can't find good people at the price you want to pay.

Try doubling the salaries you're offering and see how quickly you attract good people.

A lot of truth there!!

 

[wrench409]

All your jobs are belong to us.


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[pepi]

If someone just works an assembly line, sticking round widgets into round holes. Then yes you should be concerned about automation. However if you fix things the answer is no I would not worry about automation.

 

[Sureshot]

The industrial arts are being lost because the management in the school system is all college grad and think that is the way for everyone.

If you are young and want to make money got to the oilfield. You have to be willing to work hard, get dirty, get cold, and miss holidays and family events. If a trade is what you want they are abundant in the patch. Electricians are always in demand, Diesel mechanics, welders, instrumentation, any kind of mechanic. Tons of pumps, generators, pick ups, gear boxs, drawworks that need work. Don't come thinking you will start at the top but the good workers move up very quickly. No Union or seniority issues here.

 

[Outlander]

Funny - I keep telling my boys they will do better in a manual trade than university. Thqat said, my staff all have better educations than I do

I like robots. They are my friends.

 

[WQ59B]

And now I've gotten involved in recruiting for work, and for the life of me we can't find good welders, millwrights, etc

Isn't a lot of that, in manufacturing... done by ROBOTS ??

 

[JimVonBaden]

Low wage labor vs. automation isn't about exchanging people for robots - it's about being smarter at advanced manufacturing so we can realize efficiency and cost-savings by doing more with the same resources. Advanced manufacturing still requires people to design, create, and maintain these systems but they require a great degree of skill and creativity. This is the next step in our cultural and technological evolution and is the direction our country (US) has been leading the way toward for decades. However, our crumbling, and increasingly expensive, education systems are threatening to leave us stuck in no-man's-land between a low wage mass production environment and an automated high technology environment. Without trained and skilled people to create these systems and find new and leading-edge ways to use these technologies we will be trapped and the world will catch up and pass us.

Automation doesn't simply "replace people" but there are important cultural and educational factors that need to keep up so that automation can be our next opportunity to lead.

Well said and very valid points!

Jim

 

[larry_g]

Many years back I worked changing production over from hand work to automation. In my view the head count did not change appreciably. What changed was the automated line replaced 25-30 unskilled workers with 3-4 engineers, ~8 technicians, and some material handlers to feed and run the machines. So what was lost was unskilled workers, replaced by higher skilled workers. Volume out put went up appreciably. Then when the production machines were ironed out and reliable the machines were shipped overseas to crank out product. The state side crew would transfer to bring up a new machine set on a new product.

One thing mentioned in the remarks to the OP's article was the government rules for pollution, safety, and other barriers to manufacturing. I agree. One thing not mentioned here is the tax burden we have manufacturing in the US vs overseas. We had near a dollar tax on a $5-$7 product it cost us to produce. That adds up when production is in the millions of units per month.

lg
no neat sig line

 

[MackMan]

Not quite the robot thing, but my employer talks a lot about the lack of *good* mechanics, for the same reason. Everyone thinks a 4 year degree is required, yet they get 4 year degrees in something nobody cares about... or at least nobody is willing to pay for.

They have some presentations regarding the "payback period" showing the pay of a diesel mechanic compared to an average college grad (assuming average debt) and showed I think the college grad didn't come out ahead until after age 40 or something like that. Add to that that I'm told a high percentage (I think more than 50 but can't remember for sure) of dealership principals/owners started out as mechanics, and that begins to look like a very attractive career opportunity.

My thought has always been that your education should be career minded. I happen to have a bachelor's and master's degree, however since I was about 10 years old I wanted to be an automotive engineer, and that's what I went to college for, and that's where I got a job.

But I know a lot of people are degree minded, and don't much care what degree they get as long as they get a degree. Personally, as my son grows up, I'd much rather him be an employed diesel mechanic than an unemployed college graduate with no idea what to do with his life.

I saw a thing that Mike Rowe is doing trying to get a little more glamour to the blue collar jobs. I'm all for it. Maybe a little backwards but I've been considering going to a tech college for some auto tech classes to learn some of the hands on stuff I missed out on in engineering school.

 

[dbonne]

I have 8 production line robots in my plant. They take some serious repetitive work abuse. We would be going through hundreds of employee's due to job burnout. I could not pack ten's of thousands of items in boxes for 12 hours at a time.

What I do need is more skilled mechanics to be able to program and maintain the robots we have. Seems as if our robots are actually bringing up the level of the worker and providing for some better paying jobs.

 

[NUTTSGT]

Another reason why young people are shying away from manufacturing is because, in general, it doesn't pay worth a damn. In addition, the culture in this country is such that manufacturing is considered beneath reasonably intelligent people. "Johnny, why do you want to get your hands greasy when you can be a stock broker and work in the ever-growing financial services sector?" It's hard to attract intelligent and resourceful help when you can't or won't pay them well and provide them with opportunities for advancement.

The real problem is that, as a country, we have lost our way. Our manufacturing economy has been turned into a financial services economy which is very volatile and of dubious long-term value. Until we decide to re-focus our energy on producing things of value, you can expect that young people will shy away from manufacturing.

That article is pure ****. The biggest factors in the next generations of workers not heading for manufacturing jobs is. The School Systems, Parents and Grandparents. They all think that manufacturing is still a dirty, low skill, low pay way to make a living. There for they preach everyone needs 4 year degree. The schools have fostered this mentality with doing away with what I call the industrial arts programs. And replaced those credits with credits that only lead students toward a 4 year school. Not to enter the work field or a Technical School. The truth is not every student should go on to a 4 year college. Lots of 4 year grads sitting on the couch because they can't find a job. Ya right they have no skills to work with their hands. That is why they can't find a job. But as educators, Parents and Grandparents are totally uneducated about opportunities in manufacturing. Ya your grandfather stood in the corner for 40 years with a file in his hand taking flash off of castings. I want more than that for you you need to go to a 4 year school. That is what parents and Grandparent think manufacturing still is today. I'm currently putting together a county wide group of manufactures to re-brand "blue color jobs" to "gold collar careers". Working hand in hand with the Tech Schools, High schools and School boards.
Studies have shown the next workers are all within 20 mile radius of your our facility. That is what we have available so we better make sure we as employers do our best to make them what we need in the future. While also meeting the financial and growth needs of the next wave of workers. So you can sit back and do nothing or get out and make sure you are actively promoting manufacturing jobs. Or just whine about the lack of people with the skills you need to keep your manufacturing operation going.
The first week in October every year is "Manufacturing Week". We hosted 70 high school students to 5 different local manufactures to expose them to other opportunities available after high school beyond the brain washing they currently are getting. It was a huge success for the students.

I believe I whole heartedly agree with both. I've told people around me for years that I believe college is overrated for the reasons (and a few others) they mention.

The guy that wrote the article is in the consulting business. It's his job to spread that type of fear among the readers of Bloomberg, it's how he makes his living.

 

[colt zantop]

We have been adding automation robots to the company I work for and I don't see any jobs being replaced. You still need a body to go in and reset that robot when it "crashes" or alarms out. You also need someone to feed it raw parts...etc to assemble. Like many others said, it's improving productivity if anything.

 

[Bronson]

I fear no Robot. I just don't like them.
I kept finding things moved around when I got home. My beer was gone, and the dog was hiding under the bed. My girl had lost interest in ***.
I finally set up a hidden camera.
Yep, You guessed it. A Robot from the Assembly plant down the street was watching My place. When I would leave, He was slipping in the back door.
I watched the tape with anger and dismay, as the Robot bedded My woman, and then kicked My dog! Then, My Gal came out of the bedroom and they both went back at it, like rabbits in heat.
To add insult to injury, after having His mechanical way with My woman, He kicked His feet up in My recliner and drank down two thirty packs of beer, in a bout an hour. His little metal eyes rolled back in His head, and he let out a hollow sounding burp, and began to snore.
He was lucky He left before I got home, but I have set a trap and....Wait...this thread was about Robots in Manufacturing??? Sorry.... Nevermind.

 

[Rust]

Study my avatar and remember the outcome of that movie.

Robots...someone has to plug them in.

 

[theoldwizard1]

Funny - I keep telling my boys they will do better in a manual trade than university. Thqat said, my staff all have better educations than I do

Better is relative. If they find a job that they love, compensation is less important.

 

[theoldwizard1]

...
The greatest threat to manufacturing employment is, has been and will continue to be off-shoring to third-world countries.

+1 !

The cost of global shipping is currently so low that even second-world nations can compete and beat labor costs of first-world countries.

China has very little natural resources so it imports most raw material. Yet some how they can make cast iron items and ship them here for much cheaper !

Another reason why young people are shying away from manufacturing is because, in general, it doesn't pay worth a damn. In addition, the culture in this country is such that manufacturing is considered beneath reasonably intelligent people.

The 2 tier wage system is the beginning of the end for the UAW ! A new hire on the lower tier will never be able to make enough money to support a non-working wife and a couple of kids. Forget other blue collar "luxuries" like a boat, camper, larger home, etc.

 

[mmack66]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57563618/are-robots-hurting-job-growth/

 

[d.swanson]

My local Technical college has/is going to discontinue their machine shop/tool & die courses and replace them with cosmetology because of a lack of student enrollment.

 

[coldfoot_luke]

You mean you can't find good people at the price you want to pay.

Try doubling the salaries you're offering and see how quickly you attract good people.

I wish I could decide how much to pay, corporatons could definitely do a better job retaining workers and showing appreciation with the pay.

Still, starting pay is relatively good, especially when you think about an english major graduate waiting tables at age 22 vs. starting a skilled trade career at age 18-20.

I think now we're in theaftershocks of globilization, and there is potential for our manufacturing trade deficit to level out- the biggest obstacle being the various government institution strangleholds. Considering the economies of scale, foreign labor is not as cheap as it used to be... if our regulation/taxation system was a bit simpler we could really reap the benefits.

I'm just tired of the automation paranoia- Mike Rowe for president I suppose.

 

[bazzateer]

Well, they've built a robot that can win every time at Rock-Paper-Scissors - self awareness and replication are just a few steps away!

 

[brucer]

There is a difference.... I'm a machinist/toolmaker/mold maker by trade..
There is not a shortage of toolmakers, welders, mechanics,boilermakers,sprinkler fitters and such.. What there is a shortage of are skilled tradesmen that are willing to work for $15hr...

This is where you higher ups, you know the ones with the college educations that are in upper management, seem to think that $15hr is the most they need to pay a skilled tradesman, but what they dont realize is that the $15hr they are trying to offer isnt sh!t anymore and no one with any kind of decent experience and skill set will even bother applying for a job offering that kind of money.. Also the so smart college educated guy in the office does not understand that the skilled tradesman has more time, money and effort in his education and trade than the college educated ***** does.

 

[wssix99]

I'm sick and tired of reading about this fear that robots are going to replace semi-skilled labor and the trades. These articles are written by people that wouldn't know the difference between a nail and a screw.

Robots will never replaced skilled labor. Robots don't have the dexterity and ability handle fine variations in conditions.

However, 3D printers most certainly may replaced skilled labor. That's what we should be afraid of: http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/smart-takes/a-giant-3d-printer-builds-a-livable-house/28301

 

[58Yeoman]

I've worked in manufacturing for 39 years, and the final product is a resin powder that is packaged in 50# bags, bulk bags or bulk trucks. The 50# bags were filled and stacked by people that would eventually end up with back problems or carpal tunnel problems. A couple years ago, they installed a robotic packaging system that picks up the empty bags, places them on a snout, fills it and drops it on a conveyor belt. A robot picks up the filled bag and stacks it on a pallet, five to a row, sometimes ten rows high.

After the pallet is filled, it moves out of the way on rollers, the robot picks up another pallet and sets it down, picks up a cardboard tray and sets it on the pallet, then starts all over again. The 'bagger' person then uses a fork lift to move the filled pallet. He supplies the robot system with a stack of pallets, cardboard trays and stacks of empty bags...he just doesn't lift bags anymore.

So, we really haven't lost a worker, we've kept him healthier. Next year, they are supposed to add another feed line so that the robot can pick and stack two different products, so that will save another worker from back/carpal tunnel problems.

And yes, we do have problems with the robot. Sometimes, it doesn't put the bag onto the snout, so the whole system shuts down until (gasp) a human comes to readjust something.