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WTF is going on w/ lumber prices!?

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K'ledgeBldr

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Just finished a complete tear-down and rebuild of a deck-

Had to go almost 80mi outside of the ATL to get enough materials for the project.

There's way too much DIY'ing going on- the good news: the disasters will lead to an uptick for carpenters, deck builders, framers, GC's, etc. to correct them!
 

larry_g

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Ya suppose that the closing of the Canadian boarder has anything to do with it?

lg
no neat sig line
 

P0sTaL

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I can say up here in the white north i havent seen an increase in any wood prices. I just went to the local home depot to pickup some 2x4 and no super price increase from like a year ago. I would say maybe and i would have to look at the bills from last year this time, maybe a $0.50 cent increase max $0.75 CAD.
 

JamesW84

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Not defending it, but the higher price will keep some from buying the lumber because their project isn't worth it. That will help supply come back faster.

Imagine supply stayed the same...lets say your store can get 1000 2x4's a week. If the price is kept the same as it was before pandemic, everyone and their brother will come buy them for things that may not be a priority. Then the guy that needs them for a damaged house can't get any; or the guys that bought them at the store jack up the price and flip them because they heard demand is high.

All being said, I'm glad I bought my lumber 2 years ago!
 

mmb617

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I have a friend who manages a building supply distribution warehouse. He said they have several million dollars worth of material on back order from their suppliers. Some of it has been on order for months. With that fact in mind it's easy to see the law of supply and demand kick in and prices skyrocket.

I think we're in the midst of a steep inflation curve on just about everything that isn't going to ease anytime soon.
 

Bigblockyeti

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I'm curious as to what this might do to some homeowners insurance, for example, my insurance company estimates to rebuild my house as of 4/19 (originally constructed in 2004) it would cost $384,000 but if it were reassessed right now with many building materials more than doubling, that could easily be $50K more just in materials. Hurricane Isaias hit the beach where my grandma still has a house and while she suffered almost zero damage, three houses burned just down the road from a vehicle someone was trying to started and caught fire. These houses are old enough that if one catches fire, it's essentially a tenderbox and when the fire trucks show up, the objective is usually to save adjacent houses first (assuming no body is in any of them). The land is far more valuable than the houses but no doubt, the cost of the structure weighs heavily on the premiums. Most are built on 10"x10" or 12"x12" pressure treated columns and they were expensive, now more so and nearly impossible to get.

How is this going to effect new home construction when a contract is signed in ~ March of this year and the dirt work, septic, block work, basement, etc. is done and it's now time to have a lumber package dropped off. That same lumber package that might have been $25K in March could easily be $47.5K now. The builder sure as hell isn't going to eat that and the buyer might not be approved for, nevermind willing to pay an additional $22.5K for the same house contracted just 4-5 months ago. The government can print money to make up for these problems until the paper is worth more to wipe your **** than as a federal reserve note, what then?

I was in Lowe's this morning, since yesterday they've jack 7/16" x 4' x 8' OSB from $19.55 to $21.55/sheet.
 

jollygreengiant

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Not defending it, but the higher price will keep some from buying the lumber because their project isn't worth it. That will help supply come back faster.

Imagine supply stayed the same...lets say your store can get 1000 2x4's a week. If the price is kept the same as it was before pandemic, everyone and their brother will come buy them for things that may not be a priority. Then the guy that needs them for a damaged house can't get any; or the guys that bought them at the store jack up the price and flip them because they heard demand is high.

All being said, I'm glad I bought my lumber 2 years ago!

The problem is supply dropped too. Back in March or so when a lot of places locked down, a lot of the lumber mills either idled or cut back production thinking there wouldn't be a lot of demand. Boy were they wrong.
 

jollygreengiant

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I can say up here in the white north i havent seen an increase in any wood prices. I just went to the local home depot to pickup some 2x4 and no super price increase from like a year ago. I would say maybe and i would have to look at the bills from last year this time, maybe a $0.50 cent increase max $0.75 CAD.

The lumber you picked up, was it regular spruce? Regular lumber hasn't moved much, it's the pressure treated stuff that has gone through the roof. I had to pick up some 2"x10"x8' boards for my workshop project. They were almost $30 each. :scared:
 

WordMan

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You ever notice no body complains when the law of supply and demand work in their favor, but when the law works against them, it's always because someone is greedy?

Just sayin'
 

DFB

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Where's the price of sheetrock at now? :headscrat

Somebody told me recently that's also at premium now and harder to get :dunno:

I need to get about 50 sheets soon assorted lengths 8', 10', 12', 14'
 

larry_g

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How much treated southern yellow pine comes from Canada?

Well since the OP is in Idaho Southern yellow pine is probably not on the menu. Even though this is big timber country a lot of lumber comes out of Canada.

Lumber and building supplies have been very volatile for a year or more. My son is a builder and in a conversation with him last year he was relating that the lumber yard would only give a bid for a week at times because prices were so volatile.

lg
no neat sig line
 
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NUTTSGT

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I just check the 3 big box stores locally online for 7/16" x 4'x8' OSB.

Green- $20.55 (plus 11% rebate)

Orange- Out of stock but it shows $18.35

Blue- $13.65 (plus I get 10% Vet discount)
 

nadogail

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With all the restaurants building Out Door seating areas, Storm Damages, Low Interest Rates, and boarding up buildings in cities racked by Riots; the demand on lumber has exceeded the supply released by the Lumber Cartels.
 

jollygreengiant

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My point was- Why is PT lumber so high here in the southeast, where it's plentiful, and factories haven't been shut down as much.

Lumber is a national/international market. Regional pricing can only vary by so much until the difference becomes to big, and either people will buy up the cheap product in your area, or your lumber mills will ship product to other areas. If your factories haven't been shut down they will most certainly be shipping product to other areas.
 

softailgarage

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Sometimes, though, it's just price gouging.

You hit the nail on the head, thats exactly what it is. Big business isn't stupid, they see a rise in business due to a specific event, one that they can forecast to be with us for awhile and they pounce. On March 17 I was laid off from the Casino. March 18 I started a remodel and was at HD or Lowes daily, by March 25 I noticed a sharp increase in prices, 7 days, it only took 7 days for them to notice the uptick in business, survey the reason and implement a price raise. I'm sure supply, due to non-production also played a part, allowing them to manipulate prices even more. Some would call it good, smart business, others call it gouging. Personally, giving the fact it was a global emergency, I think that practice should be illegal, which it is. Unfortunately with everything shut down nothing can or will be done about it and we're at their mercy. The other sucky part is I'm sure the prices won't be coming back down. Meanwhile the corporate execs point and laugh :mad:
 

johnnyradiant

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Ya suppose that the closing of the Canadian boarder has anything to do with it?

lg
no neat sig line

nope. The borders are not closed to goods transportation and because they are closed to non-essential travel the transport drivers have shorter waits or less line-ups to navigate to get to the borders. Of course there are tons of other points from cutting the tree to putting it on a shelf as lumber.
 
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nadogail

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I got a taste of your pain on lumber prices yesterday. I bought an 8' Pressure Treated 2X6 to put two 30" risers under the drip pan for a 50 gallon waterheater yesterday, I am glad I was able to pass the $15 cost on to the customer.

HD cut me 2 30" lengths for my customer and the rest went into my lumber pile.
 

madhatter

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if the customer paid for the 2x6 seems like whatever didn't get used was theirs.
 

motoretro

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My wife & I were checking a house out locally which was finished in April of this year. Builder told me it was $211,000 to build at that time. He did the figures and with new lumber and other material increases, the same exact house is now at $250,000, 39k increase in (6) months. He told me OSB is $29.** a sheet, I'm not a fan of OSB at any price although that seems ridiculous.
 

NUTTSGT

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My wife & I were checking a house out locally which was finished in April of this year. Builder told me it was $211,000 to build at that time. He did the figures and with new lumber and other material increases, the same exact house is now at $250,000, 39k increase in (6) months. He told me OSB is $29.** a sheet, I'm not a fan of OSB at any price although that seems ridiculous.

At the local Lowes, Zip sheathing was only $2 more a sheet than regular OSB.
 

Miss the Pontiacs

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My carpenter who is just starting a build for me said gyproc/drywall prices were also expected to rise. Insulation in the last year or so has also increased even prior to Covid.
 

On-Wheel

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My wood pile went to zilch not none left.lol
Went and loaded up some free random stuff a guy wanted rid of.
Easily $500 of stuff.It was a nice warm sunny day arriving there on a nice country road I’d never been on.

Bought a 4x12x1/2 drywall $15.ouch

Remember all the copper wire theft? We now need to keep watch of our roofs plywood!
 

mikegt4

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sw ohio
I am building a small workbench, fortunately I had all the materials sitting around except for two 2x4's. Went to Lowes and found that they were $8 apiece!! I was going to cut them into shorter pieces anyway, some quick calculating in my head (OK, I used a calculator on my phone) reveled that I could get by with using 2 x 4 x 92-5/8" Pre-Cut Studs which were a mere $6 each.
 

Tduby

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Wow I didn’t realize prices were so crazy glad I bought a ton of extra last project. 2 years ago our Home Depot had 104 precut premium studs on clearance or something they were under $1.50 a piece we pulled off 20 and everyone was straight and beautiful, I was working with my dad he is very picky when buying lumber, talked to the manager had them bundled up the rest of the stack and we picked it up later that night still pulling boards off that stack but I’m wondering if I could earn 5x my money and free up some room.
 

reader2580

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At the local Lowes, Zip sheathing was only $2 more a sheet than regular OSB.

I didn't realize Lowes sells Zip sheathing until I saw this post. Locally, Zip Sheathing is $10 a sheet more than OSB at Lowes. I appears that Zip sheathing pricing hasn't gone up as much as OSB which is why their prices are pretty close now.
 

Bigblockyeti

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Wow I didn’t realize prices were so crazy glad I bought a ton of extra last project. 2 years ago our Home Depot had 104 precut premium studs on clearance or something they were under $1.50 a piece we pulled off 20 and everyone was straight and beautiful, I was working with my dad he is very picky when buying lumber, talked to the manager had them bundled up the rest of the stack and we picked it up later that night still pulling boards off that stack but I’m wondering if I could earn 5x my money and free up some room.

$1.50 each is pretty good for precuts, this was for a full 8' at Lowe's yesterday, yes that just one!
 

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budget76

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last time I grabbed the "top choice" 2x4's from Lowes they were $3.75 or so.

looks like my backyard deck build is waiting until next year
 

KeaneKong

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lumber pricing is starting to trend down, however, we are about to run into the same issue with metal now. expect prices to jump significantly
 

southwow

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Here in the Midwest, prices are still high at the big box stores. Looking forward to seeing prices start to normalize.
 

username2

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You ever notice no body complains when the law of supply and demand work in their favor, but when the law works against them, it's always because someone is greedy?

Just sayin'

One big problem is that pricing for commodities like lumber (or gasoline for that matter) will immediately notch up with a shortage but can take a long time to settle back down. It's just the nature of a marketplace, it really does work against a buyer.
 

WordMan

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One big problem is that pricing for commodities like lumber (or gasoline for that matter) will immediately notch up with a shortage but can take a long time to settle back down. It's just the nature of a marketplace, it really does work against a buyer.

Except when the shoe is on the other foot. Note how cheap gas is right now?

In fact, it's the buyer who is to blame the most. Remember back when covid first hit and everyone stocked up on enough toilet paper and paper towels to open a good sized hotel? That's who drove the prices up so quickly.

Managing inventory to work with these ups and downs can be tough. Back when my family owned a service station, my dad worked very hard to keep the tanks full when prices were on the rise and as close to empty as was possible when prices were dropping. Otherwise, you got caught behind the eight ball (when prices were dropping) and might end up selling current inventory below cost. Even with careful inventory management, this happened fairly regularly (the station makes very little on a gallon of gas).

You want Lowe's to have a good amount in stock, but you don't understand why the price of lumber might go down slowly?
 
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