I havent been impressed with CFLs or LEDs with respect to the length of time they are suppose to last. I have 10 year old incandent flood light bulbs that have outlasted LEDs by 8 or 9 by years and are still burning.
Incandescents' lifespans largely vary based on how hot the filament is run. The hotter the filament, the more lumens you get and the higher the color temperature, but the shorter the lifespan. The only conventional "normal-sized" tungsten incandescent bulbs available around where I am are the rough service bulbs where the filament is run so cool that a 100 watt bulb makes about the same light a 60 watt bulb did back in the day, but they are rated at about 10,000 hours and seem to last forever. But they are pretty dim.
I have actually had good luck with the regular self-ballasted CFLs, to be honest. All of the ones I have seen have said to not use them in enclosed fixtures (where the heat would cook their ballast electronics), so I didn't/don't. I have some of these which have lasted for well over 10 years in service where they are turned on and off several times per day. This is pretty consistent with linear fluorescents, as long as you don't cook the ballast or have them on an occupancy sensor, they last for a very long time.
LEDs are a different story. I have had to replace more than a few LED screw-in bulbs after a few years. Some had portions of the LED arrays die off, yielding a dim bulb. Others have driver failures where they will sit there and flash. Others just were totally dead like a burned-out incandescent. I have had to replace screw-in LEDs more than once while the old CFL that was sitting next to it in the same or adjacent fixture keeps on going. I'd rate the lifespan of an LED as similar to at most twice that of a halogen or conventional incandescent (such as a BR30 flood light.)
This is why I use LED lighting pretty sparingly and most of my lighting is electronically-ballasted fluorescent. Particularly with HPS outdoor lighting, HID isn't dead either, it's a good long-lived, reasonably efficient option and is still a good option as long as the warmup and hot restrike times are acceptable for its usage situation.
