Build now or wait?

[Weazer]

Looking to build a 40x60 with a 20x30 on the side for a wash bay. Most builders around here want half down to start in the spring as that's how far out they are time wise. I don't really have a time table as I'm using my parents shops now. Just wondering if labor and lumber will go down much in the next year or so with the housing down turn?

I'm fine where I'm at but we might have to sell my parents place. They both passed away and we need to do something with the place. The shops are close to the house so not sure if anyone will rent the house with me coming and going. Can't really split the property as the house and shops share a septic system. My brother can't make up his mind on what to do with it.
The wife is pushing hard to get me to build one here by our house.

 

[Smoker]

I gave up waiting and just put the deposit down on a Mueller building and scheduled the concrete guy. Did I get a bargain? Probably not .. will I have a brand new shop before next summer .. yep. I say if you can afford it even if there's a bit of a premium on costs .. go for it.

 

[u2slow]

I reckon no point in waiting. The modern way is prices stagnate or go up.

 

[tinmanwpk]

My crystal ball doesn't see prices going down at all.

 

[Weazer]

That helps guys. I'm at like 152k insulated, inside walls done and concrete, without heat or electrical.

 

[manwithtools]

What's your location? That can help answer some of the questions

 

[Weazer]

Far nw Ohio, at the Indiana and Michigan boarders

 

[bakmopar]

Far nw Ohio, at the Indiana and Michigan boarders

Are Amish Builders an option there?

 

[jcarapet]

Honestly that doesn't sound too crazy. My 33 x 60 with a 12 x 60 lean-to with foam, electrical, and no plumbing is over 100k at this point. I have done all the work except panel hookup.

 

[billconner]

That's like $50/SF. Maybe another $5 or so for heat and electrical. Sounds like a good price. I think we'll see home building ramp up in next 12-24 months, so don't think lumber is going down.

 

[Rst277]

Prices will not go down appreciably unless we end up in an economic recession and people get desperate for work and building supplies stop selling. Looks like that will not happen in Canada or the US as the economies are slowing but not too fast.

 

[Fixr]

Looking to build a 40x60 with a 20x30 on the side for a wash bay. Most builders around here want half down to start in the spring as that's how far out they are time wise. I don't really have a time table as I'm using my parents shops now. Just wondering if labor and lumber will go down much in the next year or so with the housing down turn?

I'm fine where I'm at but we might have to sell my parents place. They both passed away and we need to do something with the place. The shops are close to the house so not sure if anyone will rent the house with me coming and going. Can't really split the property as the house and shops share a septic system. My brother can't make up his mind on what to do with it.
The wife is pushing hard to get me to build one here by our house.

Your wife is pushing you to build it? Dude, strike while the iron is hot! You're not getting younger, and as others have said, there's no indication that prices are going to drop a lot any time soon.

 

[Weazer]

Well, see if she wants to drive the Shelby she has to go get it at the shop and that takes time so she normally doesn't which is better for me. So, she wants this one so it's easier for her to choose what she drives, sigh. Yes it would be nice to walk across the driveway to work on something vs driving down around the corner and those shops are aging and will need some work done to them anyway. So, just trying to decide what to do.

 

[nickstar]

One of the main reasons we moved from NJ to Georgia (in 2017) was for me to have a shop. It took me several months to get our house set up the way we wanted. Then I concentrated on clearing the trees on a 80x100 spot for a 45x50 pad. This was done by myself (while still working a full time job) which took about 6 to 8 months. When the land was cleared in the winter of 2018, I took a break. I started to procrastinate thinking I had plenty of time and I could always get a better price on the shop. After several months or so my wife started to encourage (kick me in the ***) to get moving on the shop. Thank God she did in the spring of 2019 the pad was poured, by fall of that year the shop was up and in October on my 49th birthday I completed the last of the electrical. Not long after that Covid started. If I had not listen to my wife our 45x50x14 shop which cost me about $55K all in, would of been a hell of lot more. My long winded point is you should probably listen to your wife. Good luck whichever way you decide to go. Keep us posted. Below is a few pics of my happy place.

 

[SarcasticDwarf]

Just wondering if labor and lumber will go down much in the next year or so with the housing down turn?

I can't speak to lumber, but overall costs should come down a bit in the coming months. The commercial construction pipeline is slowing, so the various trades are starting to have to compete. I doubt the prices will drop all that much next year, but I expect there will be a lot fewer crazy high quotes (which is a problem now when that is all you can get).

 

[Fixr]

Well, see if she wants to drive the Shelby she has to go get it at the shop and that takes time so she normally doesn't which is better for me. So, she wants this one so it's easier for her to choose what she drives, sigh. Yes it would be nice to walk across the driveway to work on something vs driving down around the corner and those shops are aging and will need some work done to them anyway. So, just trying to decide what to do.

So just exactly what is the problem? (assuming you can afford it and actually want it). Will it make your life better to wait a couple of years hoping that prices drop? If they go up, will you kick yourself for waiting?

Personal opinion: If building prices drop sharply, it will be because of a really major economic disruption, in which case you won't feel comfortable building a shop. So decide if it's worth it to you now with the money you have now, or if you'd be happier doing something else with the money. If the new shop is not a *need*, you should probably classify it under entertainment or luxuries or something when making your decision. Hell, you might get more out of taking a few months to travel in Europe...

 

[nadogail]

The price of labor and materials is going to depend on both the supply and the demand. Both of these are difficult to predict.

Higher interest rates are being pushed higher to put a damper on inflation, and lumber prices are controlled by the supply. If the market is flooded with supply, prices tend to drop witch often results in a curtailment of production witch would tend to put up upward pressure on prices

 

[Fixr]

The price of labor and materials is going to depend on both the supply and the demand. Both of these are difficult to predict.

Higher interest rates are being pushed higher to put a damper on inflation, and lumber prices are controlled by the supply. If the market is flooded with supply, prices tend to drop witch often results in a curtailment of production.

None of which seem to be indicating that prices are going to drop a lot any time soon. Aren't economic ups and downs historically on something like a ten year cycle?

I'm so glad I'm a mechanic and not an economist.

 

[onewheat]

Looking to build a 40x60 with a 20x30 on the side for a wash bay. Most builders around here want half down to start in the spring as that's how far out they are time wise. I don't really have a time table as I'm using my parents shops now. Just wondering if labor and lumber will go down much in the next year or so with the housing down turn?

Do you have a 'builder' or did you go with a 'company' where this is what they do? I'm looking at building now and have gotten quotes from Summertown Metals and Morton - they are kind of apples and oranges in comparison though. Morton is REALLY nice, but on price. Summertown is decent, but there are some details that I don't like. I'm ready to pull the trigger as soon as I identify someone.

 

[jshillin]

That helps guys. I'm at like 152k insulated, inside walls done and concrete, without heat or electrical.

Have electric installed before you finish inside walls.

 

[royalton10]

Good luck on which ever way you go. I know lots of folks swear by a Morton building. Morton much higher
than others is a decades old trend. My dad was a dairy farmer in Central Ohio back in the 1940's to 1970's. He
priced a Morton building and ending up doing it himself over several years time. It was started in the late 1960's.

 

[onewheat]

Good luck on which ever way you go. I know lots of folks swear by a Morton building. Morton much higher
than others is a decades old trend. My dad was a dairy farmer in Central Ohio back in the 1940's to 1970's. He
priced a Morton building and ending up doing it himself over several years time. It was started in the late 1960's.

I just got a quote from Morton today - a 42' x 60' x 15' with 10' porches down each side - one of them enclosed - metal ceiling, R-19 walls, R-38 ceiling & 4" fiber slab. They were at $235k I'm a bit shell-shocked by that.

 

[Smoker]

I just got a quote from Morton today - a 42' x 60' x 15' with 10' porches down each side - one of them enclosed - metal ceiling, R-19 walls, R-38 ceiling & 4" fiber slab. They were at $235k I'm a bit shell-shocked by that.

I went with Mueller, 40 x 50 x 14 with all my options it was just shy of $30k. Not bad value in my opinion. Not sure how Morton calculate their pricing but its bonkers.

 

[mike93lx]

If labor costs drop significantly, it is because of a catastrophic market event... I wouldn't bank on it, nor would I likely be spending a huge chunk of money on something discretionary if that happened.

Material prices are pretty low right now too.

 

[Shoester]

I just got a quote from Morton today - a 42' x 60' x 15' with 10' porches down each side - one of them enclosed - metal ceiling, R-19 walls, R-38 ceiling & 4" fiber slab. They were at $235k I'm a bit shell-shocked by that.

Morton's profit margins must be insane. That's wild.

 

[Metal-Marc]

My crystal ball doesn't see prices going down at all.

My magic dices say the opposite.

 

[CombatNinja]

Look at it this way: let's say you can wait this out and prices do come down. How low do you think they are going to drop? If it's 10%, it will net you $15K to wait a couple of years. That kind of savings would not be worth the time and aggravation of having to travel to get to my shop, even if it is just down the street. Frankly, it shouldn't be worth it to anyone looking to build a $150+K shop. The other benefit of moving forward now is that is makes the final decision/disposition of what happens to your folks' place easier.

 

[bakmopar]

What is the current monthly carrying cost of your folks' place? Who is paying that? That is a real cash flow expense that needs to be considered.

If your finances allow, and your wife is all for it, then build now. Down the road, you will say "why didn't I build it earlier".

 

[readhead]

I’m seeing prices going up starting January first on both sheeting and structural components. Rebar is set to increase. I wouldn’t wait if I were you. That being said, handling someone 75K and hoping they start your job is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Metal-Marc]

I’m seeing prices going up starting January first on both sheeting and structural components. Rebar is set to increase.

So you have magic dices too?

I love magic dices. I can make all kind of wild predictions about the future, just like you did and blame the dices if it doesn't turn out to be true.

 

[mike93lx]

So you have magic dices too?

I love magic dices. I can make all kind of wild predictions about the future, just like you did and blame the dices if it doesn't turn out to be true.

To be fair those are commodities with markets that are traded. My neighbor is a lumber broker and can tell me whats happing on different types on the wholesaler market now, which drives retail pricing in the near term.

January is not far away

 

[readhead]

Maybe it is because my suppliers have notified me that prices will be increasing January first and to get orders in before that to avoid the increase. I'm in the steel business so I tend to pay attention to things that affect me. Metal siding and roofing is going to affect many projects.

I don't own any magic dice.

 

[NUTTSGT]

I would you will be receiving some inheritance from the sale of the parents property ?

Can you float the loan until that time ?

I would suggest having someone put up the building and concrete. Finish the interior yourself to save costs, you will get more for your cash.

 

[WisJim]

Money is just blips in the computer nowadays. A building is something functional that you can use. As long as you don't go into impossible debt to build it, don't wait. Lower cost in the future will probably be outweighed by the longer and sooner use you will get out of a building that you start ASAP.

 

[NUTTSGT]

Money is just blips in the computer nowadays. A building is something functional that you can use. As long as you don't go into impossible debt to build it, don't wait. Lower cost in the future will probably be outweighed by the longer and sooner use you will get out of a building that you start ASAP.

I'll agree with getting the use out of it now and while paying for it. However, the OP needs to be financially sound before, during and after jumping in.

Who knows, maybe he's going a huge stack of Benjamin Franklins vacuum sealed up waiting to hand out.

 

[mike93lx]

I would you will be receiving some inheritance from the sale of the parents property ?

Can you float the loan until that time ?

I would suggest having someone put up the building and concrete. Finish the interior yourself to save costs, you will get more for your cash.

Borrowing against an expected windfall is dangerous. I'd strongly advise against that, especially for something not critical

 

[NUTTSGT]

Borrowing against an expected windfall is dangerous. I'd strongly advise against that, especially for something not critical

Some how autocorrect screwed up my post above and I'm not exactly sure what I wrote.

However, I do know what the intent was.

I'm curious if the OP was planning on using his inheritance to pay for the shop.

I'll agree with Mike as to not spend the money if the inheritance is going to pay for the shop... unless the OP is financially capable of doing so.

 

[Weazer]

Sorry for the delay, I'll try to answer some of the questions. Yes, If we sell the parents place it would be split in thirds and at a minimum I would end up with 100K on up to 180ish, it all depends on who you talk to. It's paid off, but it sits in the middle of our roughly 400acre farm, that's why we aren't sure what to do. Can I afford it without that, yeah my house is paid off and don't really have much for bills.

I'm a procrastinator and I can't seem to make up my mind as to what I want for the shop and how I want it. I figured if prices were gonna fall a bit then I would have more time for planning, lol

The company I got that quote from, pole barns are all they do. They might be a bit more than say a true Amish crew or the other guy who i had price it, but they use better products. Like the steel is made local in Indiana, the roof metal has a "no drip fabric on it", 6" gutters, laminated posts, good warranties on the metal and posts, I'd have to pull the quote for the rest. I could have the shell put up and deal with the other stuff later, I would rather them come in and just do it all and be done though.

Yes, I know you will all say just do it now, lol This place asks for half down so he can lock the price in and pre-buy the materials now.

 

[onewheat]

The company I got that quote from, pole barns are all they do. They might be a bit more than say a true Amish crew or the other guy who i had price it, but they use better products. Like the steel is made local in Indiana, the roof metal has a "no drip fabric on it", 6" gutters, laminated posts, good warranties on the metal and posts, I'd have to pull the quote for the rest. I could have the shell put up and deal with the other stuff later, I would rather them come in and just do it all and be done though.

What company is it?

 

[Weazer]

Hilty buildings, Columbia city Indiana