Can anyone predict building materials prices?

[reader2580]

Does anyone know enough about the building materials market to be able to predict prices?

It feels like prices are up right now although I don't monitor prices enough to really know. I have talked to several lumberyards and they all say they are going crazy right now. I plan to build next spring, but I would look at moving things up if I thought material prices would be even higher next year.

 

[vtjon]

Does anyone know enough about the building materials market to be able to predict prices?



It feels like prices are up right now although I don't monitor prices enough to really know. I have talked to several lumberyards and they all say they are going crazy right now. I plan to build next spring, but I would look at moving things up if I thought material prices would be even higher next year.

I have been building for 6 months. I haven't been following prices too much as I bought most of my framing lumber in March. The biggest issue seems to be the supply chain slowing down which causes shortages and longer lead times. There seems to be of demand since everybody is home. If I had plans to build next spring, I would just wait hoping things related to COVID might be calmed down.

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[Kaizen]

Still looking for the guy that predicts stock market and weather.
Doubt it will go down for a year or so. If economy slumps demand drops so prices drop. Due to high demand right now they can charge what they want. No where else to get it so prices increase.


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[matt_i]

In all my trips to box stores I never saw the volume of wood being carried out in pickup trucks that I did during the virus shutdown. Seemed like a lot of outdoor projects as there was a lot of green wood flowing.

Now, post shutdown it seems like the construction projects that were started earlier are building at a fantastic pace to catch back up. Here, its very seasonal, people seem to like to move between school years and so the heavy volume is in the summer. I see a few framed in the winter but nothing like right now. Interest rates are very low and that's a great time to hook a buyer who is fringe on financing.

Imo the building materials cost are probably inversely proportional to the 30yr fixed interest rate. But, crystal balls are notoriously hard to come by, are cloudy when they are found, and almost 100% unreliable at some point

 

[MushCreek]

When I was building, starting 8 years ago, lumber and sheet goods prices went up and down like a yo-yo. OSB went from $7 up to $14 and back down again. I have no idea what was driving the changes. I do know that if a major hurricane hits, sheet goods prices will go through the roof (pun intended).

 

[Rlfd213]

I can... they’re gonna go up...lol

 

[nadogail]

In coming months I am guessing we will see a wave of bankrupt suppliers and builders.

IMHO, they will be liquidating their inventory and your cash will buy a lot more.

At present, I am seeing small amounts of lumber and sheet goods on Craig's List that can be had for hauling the stuff away.

 

[reader2580]

IMHO, they will be liquidating their inventory and your cash will buy a lot more.

At present, I am seeing small amounts of lumber and sheet goods on Craig's List that can be had for hauling the stuff away.

I haven't been lucky enough to see any good lumber or sheet goods for free. The stuff I have seen for free has either been stored outside and well weathered, or it is small cutoffs.

I did just see someone offering a bunch of new OSB sheets for real cheap. I am going to call them now.

There is an ad on Craigslist for 5/8" OSB for $10 a sheet. The photo looked good so I went and looked at it. It was seconds and was horrible. The sheets were all swelled up and sawdust like material was flaking off all over. I wouldn't have taken it for free.

 

[MushCreek]

Timing is everything. During the housing bust in FL, I picked up HardiPlank siding for 25 cents on the dollar. Nobody was buying building materials in FL.

 

[Nick Danger]

After hurricane Katrina, plywood prices here tripled. It just was a few months after Texas City refinery explosion, which raised fuel prices.

It's hard to predict hurricanes and explosions.

 

[NWOhioChevyGuy]

I have had to have my lumber package quote updated a few times since it was originally quoted early this year. Every time almost all materials have gone up a few $$.

Placing my order on Monday so i will atleast put a freeze on the increases on my budget for that.

 

[ddurrett896]

The stock ticker CUT is a Timber ETF will give you an idea.

 

[BadgeZ28]

Maybe the futures markets? So many variables and it can be a regional thing as well.

 

[Jazz1]

Our lumber mills slowed down due to lack of demand. Prices likely to drop lower yet however pulp is busy 24/7 and demand for trucks and drivers.

 

[dogdog]

can't predict it but I just check it's crazy high , as high as the mid of tariff wars.. dependents on what you are buying the RTD 23/32 plywood goes up to $30+ a piece from $23 normal price. ( this one I just checked) maybe it's from the Riots and looters driven.

 

[555]

Supply and demand. Supposedly there have been record numbers of new housing starts and home repair projects during the past few months. The Atlanta news said there is a shortage of pressure treated lumber due to the virus related "stay at home" orders. People spent their money on projects instead of other things.

 

[stillnostrebor]

I just sat down with the guy that manages one of the largest commercial suppliers here in SWMO...

Supply/demand is the driving factor, with several of the key manufacturing states that were very shut down in the past months, and the continued limits on freight caused by the shutdown. There are breaks in the supply chain even still. He is not selling at all to customers that don't have open accounts, and he cannot get treated lumber. Many other supplies and materials are similar right now, or at least components of those materials or items.

It is going to be a while before price volatility settles down. IF you need to get something done, just pull the trigger. If you can risk waiting, my guess is we will see supply catch up with demand after the first of the year *if* we actually get to work like normal across the globe.

 

[reader2580]

I know nobody can accurately predict the building materials market, but it sounds like if I wait until next spring that prices might not go up too much.

 

[Falcon67]

When I was building, starting 8 years ago, lumber and sheet goods prices went up and down like a yo-yo. OSB went from $7 up to $14 and back down again. I have no idea what was driving the changes. I do know that if a major hurricane hits, sheet goods prices will go through the roof (pun intended).

The guys I was buying my OSB from in 2011 said that the price on OSB was pretty much determined by what they got billed when the truck showed up. It was as bad as crude pricing, bouncing all over. I paid $7 off a contract for enough to finish the shop, at the end of 6 months it was double.

 

[Retroman]

Concrete gets a price increase by a couple bucks a yard about twice a year. Plus there is a Fly-ash shortage as some of the coal burning power plants have shutdown. So more cement in the concrete and a higher price but a local regional issue.

 

[rburke65]

I predict prices will increase!

 

[JRC3]

I predict 11% off building materials at Menards next week.

 

[PugetDude]

I can predict with 100% certainty that they will not be the same be it week-week, month-month, year-year.

 

[reader2580]

I thought building materials prices were high when I started this thread. Prices now are stratospheric! If prices are still this high in the spring I will probably have to wait another year to save up more money.

 

[LeeG]

Here is a pretty good YouTube channel to check out. The guy does purchasing for a lumber yard and has an economics channel.

Uneducated Economist

 

[Jlbc212]

Carnac the Magnificent passed away years ago.

I was taught in economics that an increase in the supply of money will cause inflation. Consequently I have the philosophy that my money will only continue to decrease in value so it's best to spend it now, particularly for durable items like tools .

 

[dogdog]

close to $10 for a piece of 2"x4"x10' and almost $50 for the RTD 23/32 WTF

 

[ddurrett896]

close to $10 for a piece of 2"x4"x10' and almost $50 for the RTD 23/32 WTF

I doubted you and went to check...that's crazy! Built my garage a year about and 2x4x10 were $3.91

 

[reader2580]

I knew OSB was way up, but I didn't realize just how much framing lumber has gone up. The price is double what is was a year ago.

the price to build my garage is up at least $5,000 just for lumber alone. I hope prices settle down by next spring or I'll be waiting another year to build.

 

[finn]

Small contractor/friend told me that lumber yard quotes were good for that day only.

No price locks.

Windows in stock sizes sizes are 7-10 weeks out.

 

[Bretny]

7/16 OSB was $9.99 in Jan. Now its $22.39 and rises about $1 every week or two. I was going to build a cabin..now I'm just going to wait.

 

[nadogail]

With the demand for window boards, hurricane repairs, and home building, fueled by civil unrest and low interest rates; I will go on record predicting that the timber cartels will act in their enlightened self interest and maintain or reduce the available products.

In other words "Bend Over, Here It Comes Again".

 

[dogdog]

I doubted you and went to check...that's crazy! Built my garage a year about and 2x4x10 were $3.91

This is the 2x4x8 which was $5 below last week.. now $6

https://www.homedepot.com/p/2-in-x-4-in-x-96-in-Premium-Kiln-Dried-Whitewood-Stud-161640/202091220

The 2x4x10' was $6 now $9 and change almost $10... want me to take a pic from inside the store, will be heading there tomorrow.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/Weather...tact-Pressure-Treated-Lumber-253920/206967803

Homedepot have the best of the inventory systems online... you can verify it as well, usually price is dead on, but inventory might vary due to theft or mistakes by employees..... use any of the zipcodes 10013, 11212, 11213, 11216, 11233, 11238.

 

[reader2580]

I never knew until now that there is a futures market for lumber of all things. It appears the futures market has gone up 300% since COVID started.

 

[Vtor]

We started our garage framing in March.. 2x4 about $3.50 each.. we finished recently, 2x4 at $5/each.. needless to say we sold some extras for about what we paid in March.. plus or minus few nail or screw holes.

Big demand, shrinking supply.

 

[James-W]

The daughter and I just bought 5 sheets of 1/2 inch plywood, one side sanded. They cost $34.75 each. I damn near fainted when I saw the price. But we had no choice, we needed the plywood so we bought it.

 

[karoc]

I was reading another post on another forum that the supply is catching up with the demand.Prices may start dropping this winter, as someone had stated.Like most here,waiting for prices to drop so can start my pole barn so can retire. Fingers cross

 

[mmb617]

I was reading another post on another forum that the supply is catching up with the demand.Prices may start dropping this winter, as someone had stated.Like most here,waiting for prices to drop so can start my pole barn so can retire. Fingers cross

I wouldn't count on it. A friend of mine manages a building supply distributor warehouse and he has over $5 million dollars worth of inventory backordered from his vendors. Projected delivery times for a lot of items are 8-14 weeks. He's been in the business for 45 years and said he's never seen anything remotely like this.

Not only are prices rising daily, but many products are simply unavailable.

 

[karoc]

I wouldn't count on it. A friend of mine manages a building supply distributor warehouse and he has over $5 million dollars worth of inventory backordered from his vendors. Projected delivery times for a lot of items are 8-14 weeks. He's been in the business for 45 years and said he's never seen anything remotely like this.

Not only are prices rising daily, but many products are simply unavailable.

I am sad to hear that,I was wishing it was true. But there are some people high prices does not bother them at all.Like my new neighbor's house

 

[Dustball]

An article today about the lumber prices- https://www.startribune.com./in-a-s...eowners-and-loggers-are-gobsmacked/572321452/

It brings up something I didn't think about- how the paper industry slowdown is affecting the lumber mills.

The closures of the Verso paper mills in Duluth and Wisconsin Rapids, Wis., earlier this year were blamed on declining demand for print advertising thanks to COVID shutdowns.

“This has hit the paper sector very hard,” Birkeland said. “They are weathering the storm and making adjustments as necessary.”

Tina Hegg, a vice president at Hedstrom Lumber, said the paper industry’s struggles are a “huge problem for lumber mills.” Typically about a fifth of the wood cut down on a plot of land in northern Minnesota can be used for lumber. Much of the rest goes to paper mills, and when one closes, the lumber mill loses an important market for its byproducts.