While everyone is arguing about what I meant and if we should lock the thread, I think you wound up getting to my point by accident.
I don't heat the shop to a very high temperature. 15 degrees (60) is normally the maximum, if I was painting I would temporarily bump it above that using the forced air, but I run hot naturally and if I'm wearing coveralls I prefer it to be cold. My assumption at that point is the delta between the shop and the earth at about 5' is not very much, so you're starting to split hairs on how much heat is moving. I'm totally willing to be wrong on that, hence why I commented that doing the "L" horizontal insulation to the footer would make sense versus nothing but the ICFs. But I'm questioning just how much heat is going to soak into the ground and not be recovered versus saturating the mass under the slab and more or less staying there to be slowly released back into the shop.
Most of the slab heated shops I've dealt with have issues with the temperature not regulating as the thermostat that is controlling the heat is sensing the air temperature and not the slab temperature, and will wind up firing the boiler at an extreme when it is a cold snap which results in the slab just being way too hot for when the cold has passed. Now, I don't know if those are insulated slabs or not (again, code requires the perimeter foundation to be insulated, but that is a change from only a decade ago), so maybe their issue is not what I'm perceiving it to be and the slabs aren't insulated, and that is causing the issue.
I guess what I am also not considering is that the glycol will be 40 degrees (105) and that would be the number for the delta to ground temperature, versus the 15 degrees (60) that would be my normal maximum shop temperature. In which case it then means you need insulation somewhere under the slab. Maybe? I have to think about if it works that way or not.
Ok, I'm located near Ottawa, so we don't get -40, but -30 or a bit lower, is rare, but not uncommon. I have a similar sized shop, 30 x 40, and in floor radiant using a 10 kW boiler. 3"insulation under the slab (monolithic shallow foundation) and horizontal skirt insulation out 4' from the edge of the building
You're right about the regulation of temp. With in floor radiant being very slow to react, there are a few things that can be done to mitigate that. One being having a boiler with an outdoor reset feature (poorly named IMO). ODR monitors the outdoor temperature and then regulates the output of the boiler (when it's warmer out, it scales back the boiler output) so as to not over shoot so bad. The other is to regulate on the slab temperature rather than the air temperature.
Regarding your point about the temperature differential between your shop and the temperature of the ground, I can tell you that the slab temperature is always 3-4 degrees Celsius warmer than the air temperature of the shop. So if I've got the shop set to 15C, the slab is going to be at 18-19C. Or about 15 degrees warmer than the average soil temp you cited below. And that's with 3" of insulation under the slab.
Without insulation, you'd have to pump a heck of a lot more energy into the slab to maintain the same slab temperature. I'm just not seeing a good reason to omit the underslab insulation. I've seen multiple threads on here and when I was researching installing my system where people did not install the insulation, even in much more temperate climates, and they regretted it.