Good discussion. Just some added details:
1.) I'm looking to maintain a constant temperature of 55-60° F throughout the cold season. I may or may not increase temporarily to suit my projects/comfort level on evenings/weekends, but primarily as a comfortable buffer from vehicles to home, pre-warmed vehicles, & a controlled environment to reduce condensation on tools & equipment in shop space.
2.) Recovery time from large overhead door use isn't my biggest concern, but it is a factor.
3.) The most efficient means to provide the most comfort for cost to operate this type of unit.
Many good points, but this one is an excellent point on heat vs comfort:
It looks like I should opt for a smaller unit that runs a bit more. My concern about that is that a 60K @ 82% efficiency is 49.2K in output. A 50K unit running @ 82% efficiency is 41K in output. The lower of my delta temp HLCs is 58.4K, which makes a 75K unit (61.5K @ 82% efficiency) the recommended fit according to the manufacturer numbers. What I'm learning here is there are too many variables of climate, construction, insulation efficiency, & use involved for all of the recommendations given here to use to make anything other that a scientific wild-*** guess. I'm going to re-validate my calcs, verify & trust them, then size accordingly rounding to the low end to error on the side of more run time.
What Jack is talking about is a modulating furnace -- a modulating furnace may or not be a condensing furnace. Don't get all the terms mixed up .... most hanging garage gas heaters are not condensing -- so they are 80% efficient.
You first started seeing modulating in home units -- two stage .. over time some manufactures got to 10 stages .. and then fully modulating. What's all this and why? You have to size a heater so it can maintain the temp you want on the coldest day ... how often does that happen? In some places maybe only once every 5 years ... but you need it when you need it. So the heater is sized for 2 degrees and putting out BTU's for 2 degrees when it's 40 degrees out.
Heaters with the ability to adjust output -- "modulating" match what is needed at the time and temp.
Another long standing problem -- limited sizes. This is less of a problem now as manufacturers have been making smaller sizes. But -- it was not uncommon for HVAC installers to find themselves not able to match the needed load properly because there was not one small enough. Another problem is people using "general rules" . It's this many SF so it needs "X" unit and then they install one bigger .. just in case. It's why many small houses have 120k BTU furnaces and 160k BTU boilers.
The unit Jack has is a modulating cabinet heater. I have the same type in one of my studios that is not modulating. They look like a small cabinet sitting on the floor -- closed combustion (they get air from outside for the flame) -- simple vent through the wall. They cost more but, IMO are nicer. Quiet and the heat comes out at the floor. Mine was bought many years ago before the modulating -- I would buy the type Jack has today.
Most people have never lived in a house with modulating equipment --- it's the same with spray foam ... or radiant heat. What's the big deal? Well you can't explain -- have to experience.
Now -- this is a garage. Some people don't use often ... some people like to wear lot of clothes. Other just like or are used to colder spaces ....it's impossible to give one answer.
Air is easy to heat .. opening and closing a garage door a few times a day in a shop where the temp is maintained is not even a factor. The unit will come on and quickly heat the air. This is what is happening anyway -- the air is heating everything in the space. Most people never measure the heat at the ceiling -- if you have a big heater up on the wall blowing lots of warm air ..where do you thing it's all going ... it's up at the ceiling? You are heating the space from the top down --bigger heater ...more heat to the ceiling.
It's why radiant is more comfortable and can be more efficient --- the hottest spot is the floor and as you go up the air cools ... the ceiling will be coldest if the system is running correctly.
The only reason to oversize a heater is for quicker space warm ups -- and based on your desired temps a properly sized heater should be fine except on the coldest day. IE -- I turn the unit down more than normal and it's now super cold out and I want the space to heat instantly.
My old studio space was propane as well -- when I outfitted it propane was $1 gallon. I kept the space at 68 ... even though I was only there on the weekends. Lots of stuff in the building -- tools/ equipment/ paint/ wood products. When propane got to almost $5 .... I started turning it down. If I got there on the coldest day and wanted to work in the space .. I happened to have an electric heater 4kw that I would turn on with the gas. It only needed to run an hour or so .. in that way I created a modulating furnace.