I will certainly go with the load calculation before such a big investment, but it is nice to get these ballpark estimates during the planning stage. Thanks.
NP for my part. Just happy to relay my experience if it helps someone else. Keep in mind I'm more concerned about 100+ degree heat in the summer, and much more mildly concerned about a few 20 degree days in the winter. Of course, this last year Dallas got killed with extremes of a brutal winter and summer both, and the mini-splits performed admirably with both with the house being really comfortable and the overall utility bill still ended up being cheaper than heating with natural gas. I was a bit off on my own when I did mine (taking educated guesses for sizing and a couple of SWAG's that luckily turned out to be *mostly* correct later...), but if you can find a Mitsubishi dealer who is used to dealing with Mini-splits and trained on them, it'll help a lot (regardless of which mfg you put in, mine did the final hookups on my Mitsu and then 2 different LG's). A conventional HVAC dealer is a bit out of their element on these unless they've gotten re-trained for how mini-splits perform. In practice, they're just very different for sizing, placement, etc etc. For instance, the sizing charts I used off ACWholesalers seem tuned for conventional HVAC and are oversized for Mini-splits, not that oversizing a mini-split is bad like it is on conventional HVAC, but you can probably do it cheaper by not having to overbuild.
For installation, what I did was run all the electrical and refrigerant lines and the physical installation of the units and compressor, and then had the dealer do the final inspection to make sure I hadn't goofed (I had minor ones of course) and then they made the final connections. Saved a couple of grand that way. Another tip that comes to mind, is mount the compressor ON the side of the house/garage. This does three things:
- Make sure you get as much heat as possible in the winter
- Save the compressor from "yard crew" damage.
- A LOT Less Dust/dirt/debris to clean from the compressor (or in my case cottonwood "cotton")
The above is a lesson learned the hard way. My Mitsu is on the ground in the line of fire from the mower and string trimmer as well as the cottonwood, and my LG on on the side of the garage nice and safe. The ground is a terrible place for one of these nice "thin/flat" compressors if you have a choice of mounting it on the wall. I'm going to get the new mount up, and then get my HVAC guys out to do the disconn/reconn to get my Mitsu next to the LG compressor.
The other thing I would do now, is with two compressors outside, I would split the units upstairs and downstairs across the compressors for better redundancy. When I put the Mitsu in originally, I was going to leave in the conventional HVAC since it was gas heat and that was needed more downstairs. I just needed something really efficient and cost-effective to better deal with the rooms upstairs which was unbearable in the Texas summer, particularly my office which needed to be on its own zone. It turned out to work so unbelievably well, I did rip out the conventional HVAC 6 months later rather than hassle with replacing it only to get something that didn't work as good as the mini-splits. Given the remodeling that has occurred, the required ductwork rework and all that was way too expensive , time consuming and still wouldn't have done the job. Mini-splits are really easy to install in comparison and surprisingly cost effective. I ended up plopping the LG in pretty quick after the experience with the Mitsu install. BUT, if I'd done the whole thing at one time, I'd have put the main inside units on each floor on different compressors, so if one compressor goes out, the upstairs or downstairs would still have at least minimal heating/cooling.
I agree with RKA, with really tall ceilings and large open areas, a couple of ceiling fans will help balance things out, in spite of it generally being said that ceiling fans aren't needed with mini-splits. But lets face it, each situation is different. Not needing a ceiling fan is true in a smaller space (bedrooms and my kitchen), as I removed 4 ceiling fans afterwards as they weren't needed and were just taking up space and attracting dust. But in the main living area downstairs, and the family room upstairs, the ceiling fans are still needed to move air around so it circulates evenly through the house. My 18K wall mount throws air a good 20 feet out, but without a ceiling fan it doesn't get distributed to areas to the direct side and behind it. The biggest oversize I did was in the kitchen and master bedroom. 18K and 12k ceiling cassettes respectively (cassettes being the reason I did LG downstairs...). The former "necessary" to still be able to cook in the kitchen on a 110 degree day (something that was impossible with conventional HVAC), and the latter necessary to freeze the room at night and keep my wife comfy... Actually I think 12k would have worked in the kitchen, I just had some extra tonnage to blow, no wall place for another 9K unit, and "spent" it there.
And a thanks to Jackfre. Nice to have second opinions from someone with a lot more experience on these. I hadn't thought about the disadvantages of multi's, although I do like the redundancy of them.

If the downstairs area is complete open, maybe a single large ceiling cassette would work?