Hobby_Man22
Well-known member
So about a month ago I checked online to see that it was $6.95 for a 2x4-8. Well a couple days I looked and it's $5.95 now. So looks like we're heading in the right direction.
Lumber prices going down
- Thread starter Hobby_Man22
- Start date
Bessy
Well-known member
More than likely it's a blip due to a surplus in a facility. In Canada at least, prices (nearly 3x'd since 2019) are still climbing. CHBA is projecting prices to continue to climb through the summer as our mills continue to pick up slack in the US market. Until the US mills are back up to full capacity, prices will likely continue to climb, albeit maybe slower.
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like2wheel
Well-known member
Got 40) 4x12' last spring. Now $40/sheet more than what I paid.
I bought a lot of 2x6 studs from lowes for a project a couple of months back. They were $5 and 2x4 studs were nearly $7/ea. I had been debating on which to use when drawing things up, but the price made that decision for me.
Pntyrmvr
Well-known member
CDN$50.55 per 7/16” sheet today on their app around here.
“Talk is cheap. Whiskey costs money.”
“Talk is cheap. Whiskey costs money.”
justanengineer
Well-known member
I’ve been watching prices drop for ~2 months now. It’s simple economics, we have little demand and excess inventory. The box stores around here all have more inventory than our mill yard ever had and with so much sitting outside exposed to the elements they’re facing the potential for big spoilage losses. I buy a lot of clearance off “Ray’s List” at Menards and have never seen it include much framing lumber or other goodies like it has recently.
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purplezr2
Well-known member
I think it depends on the location. I know that there that builders are busier then ever in my area. Local bankers said they are only doing one less house then was planned due to prices, but otherwise total number of projects over years past.
HPRifleman
Member Emeritus
You've mentioned this before in other threads. Detroit seems to be an anomaly compared to other parts of the country.
What are the current prices for OSB and 2x4's in your area? I'm curious how it compares.
purplezr2
Well-known member
I looked at the Livonia MI Menards and prices were the same or slightly more then my local Menards(Baxter MN)
tdkkart
Well-known member
If people would quit paying stupid prices the prices would go down. Home building around here has pretty much ground to a halt, you can't spend $400,000 building a $250,000 house, it just doesn't add up.
56Mark
Well-known member
Yesterday, here in east TN, 2x4x8 and 2x4 precuts were $7.25 at HD. I hate buying it but am in the middle of a flip house and have no choice.
broinkrist
Well-known member
I bought 2 2x4x8's of the plain jane stuff last week for a bench project in NJ. $8.50 each. So I wouldn't say prices are going down yet. Building here is crazy and good contractors are booked 6-12 months out, even for small repair jobs.
Bent Handle
Well-known member
Is hardwood lumber doing the same thing or is it just production lumber going through the roof?
Homebody
Well-known member
No. They've flucuatuated up and down since last June!
gagecalman
Well-known member
I saw on the news that there is a shortage of chicken wings and prices are going up.
Wood's one thing but don't mess with my wings.
Wood's one thing but don't mess with my wings.
R6 Racer
Well-known member
14 bucks for a 2x6x8 yesterday at home depot
Kaizen
Well-known member
On this theme I saw that new house prices are higher by 30k I think because of high prices. So how does this affect values? If similar houses are assessed at say 300k and this one cost 330k will it assess for 300? Will a buyer be immediately upside down?
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Pntyrmvr
Well-known member
Wheelingit
Well-known member
Good lumber for furniture is going up also. Was just told that there is an upcoming 20% furniture increase coming in a few days.
triesharder
Well-known member
fyi...
businessinsider.com
Expensive lumber costs have added $36,000 to the average price of a new home, report finds
businessinsider.com
Expensive lumber costs have added $36,000 to the average price of a new home, report finds
TTMotorsports
Well-known member
a little over 2 years ago I bought 100 sheets of OSB and numerous 2x4's and 2x10's for my shop. 100 sheets of OSB was $840 with tax. went to buy some the other day and its was 35 a sheet. and now it's over $45
Sometimes I think it's all about managing expectations. Let's say OSB is selling for $10 and all of a sudden it's run up to $60 for a while. Now when it drops to $40 people will think that's cheap.
When stuff goes way up in price temporarily it almost never comes back down close to the former level. A new price standard is then established.
When stuff goes way up in price temporarily it almost never comes back down close to the former level. A new price standard is then established.
The formal-ish term I have usually heard to describe this is "price sticky-ness" and yes I think you're spot on and the days of $10 OSB are gone
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duneslider
Well-known member
Economics 101 what goes up must come down.
There are a lot of things that have caused the price increase based on my research. The two primary reasons I have found is big lumber greed and the futures market. Both have driven up the price.
We are at, or near, the saturation point though. You can see this fact everywhere. Many are now holding off on purchases. I know that I am, I am only buying what I HAVE to buy right now. I am holding off on some bigger projects due to the costs. When enough people "pause" suddenly the supply and demand shifts and the lumber yards will be over capacity and nothing is moving so they will start to lower prices to move stuff faster but all of us that hit pause see it going down and keep waiting to see how low it will go down. So, they will keep lowering the price, the futures will crash and we will get a market correction.
I do think lumber prices were a little too low, we are going to see some inflation coming and the lumber prices will most likely not drop to the "below $10 osb" prices again but I think they will get within 20% of that.
Its hard to say how fast this will happen but in the last week a 2x4x8 in my area has dropped $2 bucks. They are right around $8 right now and were $10 on Saturday. My local HD and Lowes has STACKS of lumber outside along the building walls stacked to the roof height and I haven't seen the stacks moving the last few weeks.
My next project needing lumber is basement work so I am going to enjoy the spring and summer weather and do outside activities and then see what prices look like in the fall and winter when its nicer to work inside anyway.
There are a lot of things that have caused the price increase based on my research. The two primary reasons I have found is big lumber greed and the futures market. Both have driven up the price.
We are at, or near, the saturation point though. You can see this fact everywhere. Many are now holding off on purchases. I know that I am, I am only buying what I HAVE to buy right now. I am holding off on some bigger projects due to the costs. When enough people "pause" suddenly the supply and demand shifts and the lumber yards will be over capacity and nothing is moving so they will start to lower prices to move stuff faster but all of us that hit pause see it going down and keep waiting to see how low it will go down. So, they will keep lowering the price, the futures will crash and we will get a market correction.
I do think lumber prices were a little too low, we are going to see some inflation coming and the lumber prices will most likely not drop to the "below $10 osb" prices again but I think they will get within 20% of that.
Its hard to say how fast this will happen but in the last week a 2x4x8 in my area has dropped $2 bucks. They are right around $8 right now and were $10 on Saturday. My local HD and Lowes has STACKS of lumber outside along the building walls stacked to the roof height and I haven't seen the stacks moving the last few weeks.
My next project needing lumber is basement work so I am going to enjoy the spring and summer weather and do outside activities and then see what prices look like in the fall and winter when its nicer to work inside anyway.
oldwino
ALLIANCE MEMBER
Bought 4x4 green con heart redwood this morning…. $4365/MBF. OUCH
ericlar80
Well-known member
This is an aspect of inflation, as much as some people don't want to admit it. And it will take a housing and market bust to reset everything back close to where it once was.
BruceMc
Well-known member
Of course, once you spread this out over a 30-year note at 3.3%, it's not going to have much impact on supply/demand.
GRivera
Well-known member
How is this affecting homeowner’s insurance rates - with rebuilding costs up
Renegade1LI
Well-known member
One thing I have noticed, there is very little in new decks & extensions going on around me in LI. Usually when interest rates are this low people are building, but it's real quiet during the day & I am in a decent area, I also don't see the cart loads of decking at home depot. It appears that market has slowed a lot & HD is stocked to the rafters plus the outside lot is full.
Miss the Pontiacs
Well-known member
rwilly
Well-known member
House building in the Seattle area is full speed ahead. They can’t make them fast enough!
TTMotorsports
Well-known member
I used to buy 3/16" steel 4x8 sheet for $135. Then there was talk of tariffs so immediately jumped up to $190. Then the tariffs never happened. and Metal never went fully back down. Went down to $175 a sheet and the metal suppliers were like year prices dropped back to normal. HAHA not even close. Dropping back to even $140 would be normal not 50% higher. $10 OSB is gone and now even at $40 a sheet it will drop but MAYBE to $25 a sheet and will never drop to $10 again. The thing with it is they say Covid caused driver shortages. Then they say Covid stopped production. It's always an excuse but never a real reason, they are money hungry and capitalizing on low interest rates and people are still buying it. If everyone stopped buying the overpriced stuff then it might drop but that's not gonna happen.
tdkkart
Well-known member
Our niece and her family lost their house to a fire last fall and are now trying to build new. She posted the other day, the lumber package for their deck was $900 last fall, now over $3000.