Part load is where the condensing boilers can really kill the standard 84-85% boiler. At those same 30% fire or 50% fire rates is where the condensing boilers are peaking out at 96,97, up to 99% efficient. That's where my 30% comes from. I'm guessing your comment about them being overrated is because you're looking at peak 100% fire situations. At 100%, they do fall into the low-mid 90's, depending on style.
As far as longevity, condensing boilers haven't been available for 20 years here in the States, so that point is kinda moot.
Your maintenance experience is worthwhile, I'm not going to argue it. I don't know the costs for replacement parts. Thanks for adding.
OK, first lets start with this chart...
That is system efficiency, not combustion, and you are comparing it to combustion efficiency of a mod con, for that to be accurate you would need the same company to do the same chart for a mod con boiler. Does that make sense? In other words, sure that chart makes conventional boilers look bad, thats what it was designed to do, but if you had a fuel fired boiler running in the 40%'s the stack temp would be 1250 degrees, lets be serious here, lol...
So that chart is useless, also most likely designed to represent high mass commercial systems...
So lets kind of start over, as far as mod cons, you are correct, in the US, they are under 20 years {but getting close} and I have already seen so many failures it is alarming. When I brought this up years ago at a Buderus live fire routine I was told by one of the german engineers "americans have it backwards, they keep their cars for 3 years and boilers for 30, it should be the other way around", so if that makes sense to you, go ahead and spend $10K on a mod con, to save you money, lol...
I will give you a real world comparison.
june of 2010 I personally go to a sales call {the son of a good customer of mine bought a 2 family, side by side}. Foreclosed house, boilers stripped, no copper in the house, good sized job. They want a price for a conventional boiler for the rental side and a high efficiency for the side they will be living in.
I tried to talk them into 2 ci boilers but they wanted what they wanted. So I install a Triangle tube prestige on their side and a gas weil mclain ci on the rental side. Both installs are done by me and as good as you are going to get, basic stuff, both have 2 zones and pretty much identical heat loads, the rental side had a heat loss just 800 btus over the owner occupied side.
I broke down the cost for them into 2 bills {for tax reasons} Conventional boiler was $3400 mod con was $6900.
So the first heating season goes by everything works perfect, but I get a phone call, their gas bill is the same as their tenants! I explained that I would come out and take a look, everything was running perfect, all looked good.
A little time goes by and they mail me copies of their bill and the tenants bill {at my request}, sure enough the bills reflect they are saving $85 per year and he tells me the tenant sets their heat higher then he does and doesnt use the programmable thermostat, so they are convinced something is wrong with the system...
I send the TT rep their, he was interested also, he goes through everything gives it a clean bill of health and said their bills are perfect and what they should be!!!
WHAT I KNEW THE EnTiRe TiMe!!! So now that is fine fast forward to 2013 the prestige gen 1 board unflashes for some reason, the unit wont work, it was the first month of the year and COLD, I call up to get a board, guess what? 2 weeks out!!!!!! Yes 2 weeks because A LOT of them had issues and they were back ordered, wanna guess what happened next????????
I ripped the TT out, bought it back off of them for $800 {which I didnt want to but to keep relations good I did } and installed another ci boiler for cost..
Now that is just one story, my business does over a million dollars in sales per year, don't even get me started on lochinvar units and HTP, never mind the previous mentioned Navians {5 year boiler in 80% of the cases}. I installed 2 high in lochinvars in one of my rental properties because I was short on space and they mounted in closets, over thepast 3 years I have done 2 fans and a board {$3000 in parts} between the 2 units, SHOW ME WHERE I SAVED MONEY PLEASE DO....
So now, I know this is a lot of info, and if anyone wants to discuss this in real time OM Ill text you my number, I don't mind giving free advice, Ill even draw the system up for you and talk you though installing it yourself, I have no problem with that...
I am sure someday mod cons will be the end all off boilers, but its not going to be for another 10 years minimum, first they need to have a universal control and gas valve system, like ci boilers have a honeywell control that can fit them all so parts availability and cost can be better managed. Next they need to make the units more affordable {this wont happen until the rebates stop, which is coming soon, they are already getting cut in half and then half again}. And last they need to make them more module, where you can change an HX in 30 minutes and have one on the floor next to the unit for $200...
BUT ANYWAY I stand by what I said, ci is the way to go, the chart above in nonsense. Mod cons don't save energy with just the burner, they use a bunch of methods.
1- outdoor air intake, some people say, "well why heat up cold air with the burner" wwell thats why you don't install boilers for a living, lol. The combustion air has to come from somewhere, better outside than inside, you are forcing your envelope to fail, that 30 cfm is being pulled from the outside no matter what, you are not going to get negative pressure in your house from the burner fan, lol... That burner wants cold air, give it to it... This can be done {and should be} to a ci boiler to, I do it to almost everyone I install, I even do it to oil, its just a simple boot kit...
2- Outdoor reset, wonderful invention I agree, BUT ci boilers can have this too and most of the new ones do, it can be setup with the multi boiler control I linked above...
3-modulation, this is a big one, and you can not modulate a ci boiler {yet}, BUT by using multi boilers you can get a turndown, so now when you only have a small load you only light 1 boiler, when the load raises 2 boilers light, more 3 boilers, etc..... PLUS the extra boilers add reliability and they look awesome sitting next to each other...
4-condensation, ok so they are more efficient and vent so cold that the gases arent hot enough to carry the water, I agree, that is cool, BUT with that comes a lot of other issues, condensate pumps that fail, drain pans that rot out, acidic heat exchangers that rot out, etc etc etc They are just not there yet...
DO THE MATH, its easy to pull a chart off the net and put it in the context that suits you, but all I ask is to do the math.
LETS USE 30% {which I promise you wont happen, don't forget I have the most efficient boiler on the market in my own basement heating my 4500 sq ft home, with all the tricks done to is, on hydro air {nothing returns colder water than a hydro air, which mod cons love}, alpha primary pump, bumble bee secondaries, etc etc etc...
So say you have a big house in a cold area and spend $4K a year to heat it, that means you save $1200 a year {never going to happen}, so the boiler to heat a big house is expensive no matter what.
throw $200 of that savings away for annual service and tune. so $1000 per year...
say $4000 for a ci and $11K for a mod con
thats $7K to make up so that is 7 years...
If you go 7 years with out a service call, I would be surprised, not shocked but surprised, so after 7 years you start making $1000 per year, fast forward to 20 years, that boiler will need to be replaced, but you saved $13K over that time, in a perfect world where it needed NOTHING {not going to happen mind you}. So you take your savings and buy another boiler...
Now with a ci boiler, you can expect to never have it cleaned {I have seen them go 40 years never cleaned and still clean when I pull them out} but the boiler lasts you 40 years, you pay once and forget it....
Now when you come back to earth and realize a mod con will save you 5-10% not 30, you only spend $2000 a year not 4, when most likely you will change parts that cost $1000's and wait for them to come in while huddled around an electric heater, and it will last 12 years not 20, you will see its non sense...
Good luck though, and again if anyone needs more info post or pm me, I have no problem talking about this stuff, I have done very well with it, I have 6 years of schooling and been working on boilers since I was 15 and after 18 most of them weeks were 70 plus hours...
If you already bought a mod con, theres nothing to feel bad about, I have them in my properties too, and I know its easy to get defensive about, but thats not my intent, I just think there are not enough guys out there telling the truth, and why should they, they are selling a boiler that cost them $3000 for $11000 that is easier to install and takes less time without breaking their back!!!!! I was just a different kind of company so liked people to be happy with my work, it paid off I am 35 and retired, lol... {granted that is more because of the rental properties I invested in than my business but with out the business I would have never been able to accumulate the property I own...