OSB Pricing -- Predicting the future

[majerus]

Anyone happen to have industry insights as to when the price of OSB will return from orbit?

I have been waiting a few months, as I figured when winter hit demand would fall. So far it doesnt look like prices have fallen much, if at all around me. 7/16 OSB is still $29 4x8 sheet.

 

[b-boy]

It's nuts. I ran 2 sheets short, and I couldn't even find it locally. I ended up using 1/2" plywood instead.

 

[Dan C]

The lumber yard I have been dealing with has seen prices increase in the last month. Not as steep as over the summer, but still up. July purchases were 11.45/sheet, October was 20.13/sheet and yesterday it cost 22.75. I thought winter might see it decrease as well but no such luck.

 

[rok_hunter]

I wouldn't expect a near-term fix. Between the volume of lumber lost this year to wildfires, the processing/transportation capability lost to Covid restrictions and shutdowns, and the boom in usage from people staying home and doing projects, prices are probably going to stay high for a while.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

[bdbecker]

Its anyone's guess right now - forecasts for the construction industry are mixed. COVID has thrown a lot of uncertainty into the situation. I had the same though process in expecting that we'd see prices drop more than they have by now, but that hasn't been the case. Now we're only six weeks away from March, which means demand will start picking up around here, which could lead to prices to start going back up again.

I've got some work to do over the next few weeks to prep my last wall for finishing. Once that is done, I'll probably just to bite the bullet and buy what I need regardless of price so I can be done with it. That's easy for me to say as I'll only need 5 or 6 sheets. I feel bad for you guys who got caught up in this midway through your builds.

 

[Renegade1LI]

Probably going to be like what happened to sheet rock, it was 3$ a sheet forever now it's 12$. If they see we will pay it seems like the price never goes back.

 

[duneslider]

I was just told lumber would be going up 7% in my area. I have seen several builders near me buy lumber packages for houses before they even dig the foundations.

No lumber price drops coming in the near future from what I am being told.

 

[zippyslug31]

it was 3$ a sheet forever now it's 12$. If they see we will pay it seems like the price never goes back.

This right here. The prices are not solely driven by the current headlines, where they become restored just because we're back to (ab)normal. Sure COVID has played the unpredictability card on us, but wildfires and the building boom were not new as of last year. I doubt prices will return to what we saw, pre-2020, until buying behaviors and demand changes. Take a look at the Nasdaq LBS... lumber is a commodity and is affected as much by hedging as it is by external forces.

Once the pandemic is over and if we magically find infinite capacity for lumber production, if we're buying at the current price, why would they ever lower it "back to the good 'ol days"?

 

[jbwilkins]

Dimensional lumber started back down this week (01-15-21), OSB stayed strong, but the increases have moderated. Demand trailed off after the last run, and will again, but that might take a couple more weeks for OSB to start pulling back.

How far each will fall is questionable. Don't expect prices to get back where they were this time last year (about 1/3 of where they are now), but prices will pull back some. There's just too much pent up demand; E.G. My company has over 3,000 homes sold we haven't completed, we have to build them, we're contractually obligated.

 

[nadogail]

IMHO, the price has three ways to go. It can go down, remain the same or increase; sort of like the Stock Market.

 

[karoc]

Where I am at the building boom is at an all time high, heck we get mail from people asking if we want sell our house. Na its just plain house in plain neighborhood, nothing fancy. I don't know where all these people are coming from and from the looks and sizes of all house being built they must all be CEO's of some corporation and have large family. Driving through a new subdivision being built I see sold signs on empty lots, its crazy. Like others said why drop price? People with the money will still buy and developers will continue to build. Still waiting for those prices to drop so I can get most out of little pole barn budget

Adding to this story, my daughter is moving into a new house in new subdivision renting. She is renting from a lady who purchase several new houses then renting them out which adding to the building market

 

[Busted Knucles]

Wont ever go back down, simply put its like taxes, they only go up.

 

[Kev442]

I'm still waiting for dino oil to come down from when the $120 per barrel price doubled it.
Oil bottomed out at zero this Spring...

 

[aventino68]

From what I've read after it all wound back for Covid etc and a suspected reduction in demand that didn't occur, it takes a while too crank it back up from Forestry to mills to transportation. And on top of that is the nagging doubt that if mills crank back up and demand drops post covid, there will be a glut, which suppliers don't like. But I can't see how it can't drop back in price in next 6 months.

 

[iSpark]

Not only are prices going up, builders are "padding" the bids to guard against future lumber increases so they don't have to bite the bullet. A lot of builders in my area are losing money on unfinished builds.

In one year, my workshop build quote increased over 27%. That's the downside trying to wait out the huge increase.
Either build now, or wait and build later at a higher cost.

 

[Showkey]

^^^^^^^^^^^^ Today.........Many contracts will be quoted materials at “market price.”