Preemptive heat pump replacement?

[vavet]

I’ve got a Bryant 2.5 ton heat pump at my rental house, in central Virginia. It was installed in 2009. The only problem it’s had was related to a faulty condensate line float switch. The switch would make intermittent contact, but basically it opened, which interrupted the control circuit that determined when it would run.

at what point do I replace it to avoid future problems at inopportune times, especially with tenants? I change the filters myself, so I know that is getting done regularly,
realisticlly, I’ll probably own that house for no more than 7 more years.

is it realistic to think it could last that entire time? A total of 24 years? If I’m a potential buyer, is there a significant difference between a 7 year old unit and a 2 year old unit? I think there is, but it’s not going to substantially change the value of a $380k cookie cutter house.

 

[mike93lx]

I'd let it ride if it's working fine. You clean the coil and condenser regularly?

You won't get your money back in a sale

 

[danski0224]

at what point do I replace it to avoid future problems at inopportune times

Only you can decide this. I am a firm believer in preemptive replacement, because the downtime is under your control. There is no way to tell how much longer it will last, without having trending data like megger readings on the compressor.

I have also seen many units that appear to be working, but are way out of whack when superheat and subcooling is looked at. The customer thinks it is "working" because there is cold air in AC season.

As evidenced in almost innumerable threads in this forum, waiting until it breaks never seems to end well.

You might also need to comp the tenants when it breaks during the coldest or hottest day, and replacement can't be done "right away". Of course, this can happen with new stuff, but it isn't normal to happen like that.

but it’s not going to substantially change the value of a $380k cookie cutter house

That's what you think.

The home inspectors will latch onto the age of the equipment and write it up as doom and gloom.

At best, it won't matter, especially if the selling market is good whenever that happens.

At worst, it will cause delays in the sale of the house- and you might be stuck either replacing it or giving a credit to move the sale of the house along (depending on how quickly the sale needs to happen).

Some buyers are paying attention to the HVAC stuff, but they are still in the minority.

 

[nadogail]

If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

 

[PoorUB]

is it realistic to think it could last that entire time? A total of 24 years? If I’m a potential buyer, is there a significant difference between a 7 year old unit and a 2 year old unit? I think there is, but it’s not going to substantially change the value of a $380k cookie cutter house.

Guys can warn gloom and doom if the HVAC fails, but I am more of a run it until it dies kind of guy. Really, only you can decide this for yourself. It might run 30 years (doubtful!) or it can die next week. How much pain will you have to endure when the new unit gets installed? Do you have a source for back up heat? Can you survive with 3-4 space heaters? Will your wife threaten divorce and go live with her parents until the heat is back on?

My furnace and AC is 20+ years old and no plans on replacing it. It looks good, no rust of corrosion, a nice clean unit. Even knowing how old it is taking a quick look at it and one would never guess it is that old. It runs, it is a 96% unit and a new one will not save me any money, so I run it.

I agree on the comment of adding value to the house. If you replace it today and sell it tomorrow, you won't get back the $15K it costs to replace it. Maybe 50% of it.

 

[HoosierMark]

I had 24 units., 12 from 1994 and 12 from 1995. I replaced all 24 at once about five years ago. My highly trusted hvac guy said that based upon the increased number of service calls I had experienced the previous three years would only increase. I was able to negotiate what I thought was a good price, reduce repairs and advertise I had more efficient units to prospective tenants. I also gained a warranty which came into play several times. I also had a real nice tax write off that year. But in my duplex or single family units I just let them run until they die. I have no idea which way is better.

 

[bwringer]

Find a good HVAC firm you can trust, pay them to do a good thorough inspection and cleaning, and go from there.

FWIW, we pre-emptively replaced our 1995 heat pump in February 2020 (yup, about two weeks before the world shut down) and it was still working fine. There had been a few repairs over the years (we moved in 2005), but so far no indications of serious trouble other than a very slightly leaking line at the compressor. But we knew that 25 years was very seriously pushing it, so we got some estimates and jumped in.

FWIW, the company that did the work was one with a little booth at Costco, and we ended up getting 15% back through a Costco shop card (usually it's 10%), plus we signed up for an Executive membership that got us 2% back the next year, plus I got some rewards through my credit card that amounted to 1.5% back, plus the HVAC company filed for a $300 utility rebate for us. So all that, plus the best estimate we had seen, reduced the sting quite a bit. (Control Tech in Zionsville, if you're local - did a fantastic job.)

The thing we didn't quite expect was how much more efficient the new system was; our overall electricity usage immediately dropped to between 1/2 to 2/3 what it was in winter, and less than half in summer, and overall with the variable speed fans, better compressor mojo that works down to lower temps, and better control gadgetry, it's quite a bit more comfortable year-round and a lot quieter. We also got a much better air filter setup.

Adding new windows the following year also made a big difference in efficiency and made the house quieter, too.

Anyway, you're at 17 years now, and anything over 20 or so is really pushing it. The new stuff is remarkably efficient, which helps reduce the sting a fair bit.

If you try to sell in seven or eight years, this absolutely will be a major point of contention with buyers and lenders; they'll demand the cost of full replacement off the price of the house, no question. Even if you sell right now, it'll be a large nit to pick.

So there's a school of thought that since you'll be out the money anyway (and probably a lot more at that point as inflation does its thing), you might as well update now and enjoy the benefits yourself for a few years, and enjoy a much smoother sale in the future as well. Plus, you'll have a track record of much better energy efficiency.

The important thing people always leave out of home improvement calculations is quality of life. It's not just dollars and cents now or later; it's less noise, better reliability, a warranty, lower electric bills, and a more comfortable home with narrower temperature swings. Plus the new stuff comes with electronic thermostats you can control with your phone if you like.

 

[mike93lx]

The new stuff is remarkably efficient,

Can be. Not all actually are.
The basic level systems are not anything special and I doubt many landlords are putting premium efficiency units in places they don't pay the power bills on

 

[nadogail]

IMHO, Preemptively Replacing the HVAC equipment in a rental is a business decision based on tax deductions, to preemptively replace a working HVAC in your home is a personal matter between you and your HVAC tech.

 

[aggie113]

It's already a heat pump that's installed. If they were to replace it with a very high efficiency unit it might be worth it if they are staying long enough. Maybe if they went with a hyper heat unit it would be good enough to make it worth it, and could replace or mostly supplant their oil/gas/whatever heating used now.

 

[danski0224]

The thing we didn't quite expect was how much more efficient the new system was; our overall electricity usage immediately dropped to between 1/2 to 2/3 what it was in winter, and less than half in summer, and overall with the variable speed fans, better compressor mojo that works down to lower temps, and better control gadgetry, it's quite a bit more comfortable year-round and a lot quieter. We also got a much better air filter setup.

Better efficiency and/or lower bills are not guaranteed if the new system is not matched or installed properly. Sounds like you received a good one though.

If you try to sell in seven or eight years, this absolutely will be a major point of contention with buyers and lenders; they'll demand the cost of full replacement off the price of the house, no question. Even if you sell right now, it'll be a large nit to pick.

Yes.

Not sure on the lender issue part, but definitely a buyer issue.

and probably a lot more at that point as inflation does its thing

Yes. I have one customer that has put off replacing an aging system, which has required a couple of thousand dollars worth of repairs to the furnace, so that makes it even harder to let it go.

Equipment costs have almost doubled since I did the last price quote.

They have also lost out on possible efficiency/comfort improvements.

But, they are "saving money" by seemingly waiting until it breaks... and I may not be able to do the work and/or make improvements depending on how much of an emergency it is to get it back up and running.

But I am happy to check it out and fix whatever is needed. I do not push a replacement on them or anyone else.

 

[BurtEggley]

It is impossible to predict how long it will last. Our last AC unit ran 18 years before the scroll compressor started to make noise. i had the compressor replaced. It was very efficient, an R-22 system. I replaced the entire system 3 years later when it was 21 years old. I hate the new one because the same company and size air handler is much noisier. The motor whines - a common complaint. The only reason I replaced it was that state laws were changing at the end of that year, and I wanted R-410A instead of the new stuff. You asked about a buyer - hard to predict. Someone is comparing what is available in housing to what they can afford. They are comparing home against home. If all the homes that you are competing with have new HVAC then you are at a disadvantage, but if all the homes have older HVAC then it doesn't matter as much. I would say that if you spend $15K on a new HVAC system, the buyer is not going to pay you $20K more for the house. They will simply look at another similar home with an older unit and say to themselves, let's offer $10K less on the other home and wait until we actually need a new HVAC to replace it, if the seller accepts. You may have to match that offer so it may be a total loss of money to put in a new HVAC.