So I let this roll on for a while for my amusement. Here's what I think is most likely to happen with Craftsman in the near future.
A few background things first:
A. Craftsman is not dead. Not even debatable. GJ members might have the view it’s dead to them, but to the general public it’s very much alive. Craftsman has 28.5% market share in hand tools. That makes them the biggest brand, the #1 name in hand tools. They still have 9% of the power tool market to go with it. They also have the largest line under one brand name of any tool manufacturer on the planet. They have one of the most recognizable brand names in American history. Their brand name is probably the most recognized in tools. With the strong legacy they have going back generations, Craftsman is extremely valuable. It will not go away.
B. If Craftsman is sold, the purchaser will still likely honor the Lifetime Warranty. It’s a significant piece of what the brand is built on and would completely tank Craftsmen if it was ceased. No one is going to buy the brand and then shoot themselves in the head like that. They can’t afford to drop it.
C. With Craftsman, Kenmore, and Die Hard being opened in this way by Sears it shows they are giving up on the stores finally and we should see a rapid acceleration of Sears closings in the coming years.
D. If sold off, Craftsman tools will still have some kind of deal to be sold in Sears stores, as long as they still exist.
So that brings me to a few scenarios as to what happens to Craftsman now that Sears is exploring options of expanding it.
1. Most likely scenario, at least in the near term. KCD Holdings continues to own Craftsman, with or without an investment from outside, and expands the retail distribution into whatever new outlets they can get themselves into including big box stores.
2. Almost as likely, even more so in the long term. KCD Holdings sells Craftsman to outside investors as a spinoff and expands the retail distribution into whatever new outlets they can get themselves into including big box stores.
3. Next most likely. KCD Holdings sells Craftsman to another tool company big enough to swallow the brand, most likely Apex or Stanley-BD, possibly Ideal and expands the retail distribution into whatever new outlets they can get themselves into including big box stores.
4. Very unlikely. Another store chain buys Craftsman from KCD Holdings to be their store brand. Realistically only Home Depot or Lowes might be able to pull this off, but I highly doubt they would. Likely would replace their own store brand with Craftsman and warranty their old store brand tools with new Craftsman ones. Menards, Ace, and any other hardware/farm supply store simply can’t pull off a purchase of Craftsman. Harbor Freight and Northern Tool would have no interest, not their business model. Wal-Mart, Target, whomever you want general merchandise retailer, will have zero interest in Craftsman, tools on that level just isn’t their game.
5. And finally my longshot Darkhorse. Amazon, they like to shake things up. Exclusive Iconic house brand. Market pretty much unlimited to the entire planet. Rapid ship warranty returns. Messing with drones. Dabbling in physical stores. Sears of the 21st century. Amazon + Craftsman. Who knows?