Shingle prices topping out?

[will02]

I will have to shingle my house and garage next spring. I am looking at about 34 squares to get the job done. I have a couple of people saying I should buy the shingles now and store them till spring (I have room in my shop) as it is the best time of year to buy shingles and they will be going up in price. Or is it peaking in price as you could buy them a lot cheaper 6 months ago and will actually be cheaper in the spring? Any thoughts? I know it is just a **** shoot either way, but if I can save a substantial amount now, I would do it. Thanks for any opinion-Dan

 

[PAToyota]

Asphalt prices went through the roof this summer with the increased cost of oil. We were seeing prices double what they were the year before and projects were either eliminated, scaled back, or switched to concrete paving because of it.

I hadn't really thought about asphalt shingles being affected that way, but possibly with oil prices back down the shingle prices will be falling as well since there is an obvious lag due to the manufacturing time.

 

[197044RT]

I vote to wait.

We deal in commercial construction supplies and raw material prices are certainly dropping. The finished goods prices are not dropping as fast because most mfrs. bought more material than they needed to when prices were high to avoid paying even higher prices when they bought the next batch of raw materials ( betting the price would rise ). This also created artificial short term demand because more raw material was being stockpiled and in turn drove prices even higher. Now there is a glut of stored raw matl purchased at a higher price. The break even point was reached and raw material demand is falling as are raw material prices. The problem is that manufacturers are stuck with the higher priced stored material and are reluctant to reduce prices based on the current lower raw material cost and take a loss or smaller margin of profit.

This scenario should stabilize over the winter as the manufacturers use up their "stored" material. Barring an earth shattering event, finished goods prices should come down. Speculation on all levels can certainly come back and bite you in the rear, especially if demand and prices are artificially inflated.

You are doing something similar but on a smaller scale. Also, if you buy now, you will also have to store/take up space in your shop/move/protect those shingles until the spring.

 

[Sundowner]

I just paid to have my house done in GAF shingles (27 squares). They were slate line model. I paid $120/Sq. The really sweet looking Camelot model ones were over $230/Sq. Normal timberline textured models were about $88/Sq.

 

[timgr]

I think you should wait too - for the additional reason that it's always better to stay liquid unless there is a compelling reason not to. Things happen, besides the prices of shingles changing, and tying up your cash in a stack of shingles may not work out so well.

 

[JCByrd24]

I vote wait too, as a friend of mine doing his garage just had asphalt shingle prices go up 30% in two weeks, even if this is usually when they come down. I think the oil prices must be just hitting the lumberyards in terms of shingles and will be "readjusted" by spring now that oil is dropping.

 

[will02]

It looks like waiting is the consensus here, I do have the room, but as RT stated, then I have to protect them from getting bumped into or whatever "happens" to things layin round, plus, you never know what could happen in the time in between. Maybe I could get lucky and get hit by a bus or something and it would be somebody else's roof to worry about.

 

[trackwelder]

I need to reroof my house and was talking to a friend that is in siding and shingle sales about a price if he buys them with his company discount. He says they are expecting a price increase next year.

 

[PAToyota]

Just had this from one of our suppliers discussing the higher costs of asphalt roofing products:

The smaller (15%) and medium (20%) sized refineries are declining in numbers - however, they are the primary source of asphalt. There were 325 refineries in 1980, 125 today. The larger (65%) refineries have high investments in equipment that converts all oil into fuels - and typically does not economically justify producing asphalt for roofing.

Low inventory build... Higher economic risk in producing asphalt, since more seasonal demand requires building inventories. With volatility of oil prices, refiners lower risk if convert residue to fuels and sell immediately (low inventory carrying cost) - rather than 'sit' on asphalt inventory that might drop in value over time due to oil price fluctuations.

That explains why the price increases for asphalt (we were mainly seeing it in paving project costs) were significantly steeper than the fuel cost increases this past summer.

[edit]He also notes that shingle prices are twice what they were a year ago.[/edit]

 

[boiler7904]

Whether you decide to buy now or in a few months, make sure that you get plenty to do the roof and some extra for future repairs and that all of the material is from one production run. Shingles made in one batch will not match shingles made two months from now. They can even vary production day to production day depending on the aggregates used.

 

[monkeyplasm]

So...If asphalt roofing is getting expensive, are there other better alternatives that now make economic sense to choose? Terra Cotta (spanish) tiles? Rhino Lining?

 

[IDASHO]

With the big snow we get here, metal roofs are quite common.

I do like metal, but I fear walking on them and repairing them, so I stick with a good comp roof.

I scored 26 square of some Certainteed 50year roofing from work last week to redo our house this next summer.

Regular price is north of $80 a square.

I paid $25 a square. Color matches the garage too.

 

[PAToyota]

We're seeing more use of the rubber "slate" shingles. Use to sell it to the client on lifespan compared to asphalt - lasts longer, less to the landfill, recycled content, can be recycled instead of landfilled. But with the asphalt prices going up substantially and rubber not going up as fast it starts looking more and more attractive to people. You're basically looking at a minimum lifespan of 50 years.

http://www.ecostar.carlisle.com/
http://www.authenticroof.com/
http://www.davinciroofscapes.com/

Concrete products are also becoming more popular.

http://www.vhr-roof-tile.com/Products_ModernSlate.htm
http://www.ludowici.com/product/slate

Mind you, I'm showing synthetic slates because that is basically what an asphalt shingle was meant to look like. You can go for other looks depending on the style of your building.

 

[rcleaver]

With the big snow we get here, metal roofs are quite common.

I do like metal, but I fear walking on them and repairing them, so I stick with a good comp roof.

I scored 26 square of some Certainteed 50year roofing from work last week to redo our house this next summer.

Regular price is north of $80 a square.

I paid $25 a square. Color matches the garage too.

That's a fantastic price. Where did you get them? I just looked up the price of GAF shingles at home depot -- they are $23.65 per square.

 

[IDASHO]

That's a fantastic price. Where did you get them? I just looked up the price of GAF shingles at home depot -- they are $23.65 per square.

As noted, I scored the roofing from work. A sale of all sales, and I, being management, had the chance to grab things first.


Unless you are talking about 25 or 39 year 3-tab, that $23 is probably PER BUNDLE. A GAF/ELK 40 or 50 year shingle is typically priced between 20 and 30 dollars per bundle. The 40 year taking 3 bundles per square, and the 50yr taking 4.

 

[Uncle Buck]

As noted, I scored the roofing from work. A sale of all sales, and I, being management, had the chance to grab things first.


Unless you are talking about 25 or 39 year 3-tab, that $23 is probably PER BUNDLE. A GAF/ELK 40 or 50 year shingle is typically priced between 20 and 30 dollars per bundle. The 40 year taking 3 bundles per square, and the 50yr taking 4.

Yea, he meant per bundle alright. I bought 24 bundles at around $17.00 a bundle in August and loook at them now! I bought GAF 3 tab 25yr shingles.
I do not understand it, oil prices are dropping and comp shingles just keep rising. They can only milk that blame it on oil BS so long ya know!