Figure out how many BTUs you need and work backwards to a flow rate. You need to estimate your inlet/outlet temperature drop, which varies with climate, system design and loop length, but is typically designed to be 20°F.
In our Chicago climate assuming an insulated garage, 12,000 BTU per car space is a ballpark estimate for a conventional gas heater.
1500 sqft is pretty good sized, I don't think a 40 gal water heater would keep up, at least in Chicago. I'd be looking at over 62,000 BTU for our climate.
I'm sure some experts here will chime in.