A clear and harsh reply, spoken like a purist HVAC tech or engineer.....
Yes, a proper Manual J heat loss calc is always the correct answer. How many HVAC contractors will do one unless they get the whole job? How many will charge just for the calc? I assumed the OP was planning on doing his own installation by his question.
To make everyone happy, here, download this and pay $49 to get a precise answer:
http://www.hvaccomputer.com/
Precise, based on the parameters you input. How much fudge factor is reasonable? Usually 10%? What if the OP wants fast recovery after opening doors, etc? As anything, it can get very detailed if you want it to.
Yet, the accumulated wisdom of a ton of guys on here should be worth something. At least in my non HVAC professional opinion.
BTW, this wouldn't be your website, would it?
http://www.badgerboilerservice.com/
If so, you're an HVAC contractor. We always appreciate having professional trades people on GJ. They frequently give much helpful technical advice. So would you be willing to a Manual J calc for the OP and fellow GJ member?