I disagree. In less than 20 years, the number of land-line telephones in households dropped (1990-2010) as consumers adopted and shifted to cellular telephones. Pay telephones are all but extinct. Continuing education via the power companies, word of mouth, and other avenues will most likely work in the same manner with the updated light receptacle. Even without the mandate to phase out incandescent bulbs consumers had already begun this shift.
The most likely scenario will be manufacturers decided to abandon the Edison style socket in favor of the GU24 due to production costs. A shift will then take place whereupon the GU24 style will be the norm in production. Any consumers with Edison sockets will merely install an adapter.
One thing I've learned in my life is to never say "never".
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying never.
However, I think the analogy with landlines versus cellphones fails on a couple of points. Cellphones offer a clear advantage over landlines (namely that they are portable). This gives customers a strong incentive to switch from landlines. Also, consider the way that the switchover took place. In general there was a time when people had both landlines and cellphones. When cellphone plans got more generous with monthly minutes or went to unlimited minutes and customers became comfortable with the level of service, they simply had their landlines disconnected, an act with little to no associated cost. Exactly the opposite in fact. Once people became comfortable with their cellphones they
saved money by disconnecting their landlines.
GU24 versus Edison bases on the other hand don't offer as stark of an advantage. Certainly GU24 bases do have several advantages, but for the average user, a Edison base will work just fine for CLF/LED applications. About the only advantage that a customer is clearly going to understand is qualifying for Title 24, however if Edison bases are allowed under title 24 after high powered incandescent lamps become unavailable then that advantage will be neutralized.
Likewise, for customers to switch the fixtures in their homes from Edison to GU24 bases will be neither painless nor cost free. Practically and in most jurisdictions legally most will have to pay a licensed electrician to swap fixtures out to new GU24 fixtures. Given the number of fixtures in most homes this will be fairly costly. Given the little practical advantage the average customer will see, I just can't see droves of them going this route.
What's most likely to happen is that floor and table lamps (i.e. non-permanent fixtures) will over time be replaced with new GU24 equivalents as the old fixtures wear out. This will take some time though. At some point, maybe the customer will have a mix of Edison and GU24 fixtures that is sufficiently aggravating to buy different lamps for and he might eventually hire an electrician to replace his permanent fixtures with GU24 equivalents. I could see upper class and upper middle class people doing this without too much consternation, but for the vast majority of people even the aggravation of having to buy two different styles of lamps will not overcome the cost of hiring an electrician.
Of course, newly constructed home may be completely outfitted with GU24 fixtures, but once again, if Edison bases are allowed under Title 24 at some point, I suspect that less expensive homes will be outfitted with Edison fixtures if they remain substantially cheaper, unless code requires GU24 fixtures (and it's a little hard to see the justification for that once high power incandescents are removed from the market).
I think at best you're going to see these two base standards co-exit for a long time, and I don't expect GU24 bases to have anything like a majority of the market for decades at the earliest, perhaps not in my lifetime. And I suspect that if you could go forward 100 years into the future you'd still find some people buying the latest technology lamps with Edison bases.