solar

[FredWanaker]

My electric bill last year was $1,422.19. We used 9026 kWh during the year = .157 per kWh using the average. Low month was 453 kWh and high month in summer was 1332 kWh. The area that faces southwest on the roof is about 15' x 25' or 375 sq ft.

I figure that anything that I put on the house that may require maintenance won't live more than 10 - 15 years. Several of our friends who bought into solar have been thru 2 systems in 15 years because the companies go under and the next company says they can't get parts to service the old system that has failed. So, using 10 years as a life expectancy, if I got 100% savings (not expecting that just using that number) that would be $1,422.19 x 10 years or $14,221.90 I could spend on solar, otherwise I am going backwards. Adding solar also increases my risk of a roof leak. And, with new insulation R50 in the attic, our electric bills are down about 15% this year so even with inflation, $1500 a year for electricity seems a good number to use. Can anyone get a system capable of putting out enough KW to make it worthwhile in a situation like this that includes batteries for night use? I think their life span is about 5 - 7 years before they start losing ability to charge. Last bid I got 10 years ago they wanted $35K - $40K for a system that would provide that much power based on the Sacramento area.

Has anyone installed solar lately where the cost zeroed out at 10 years? I am still thinking it is 20 - 25 years before the cost zeros out.

 

[JunkBonds]

Every time I do the math for my area the numbers for solar fail.

 

[AP514]

I agree..solar just does not pay for itself ATM. At 10.5 cents Kw and a bills of $150's to $250 a month for my 3K house and pool..It would take about 20 yrs for me to break even. Just not worth it IMHO.

 

[ycgoat]

Its basic economics, it is cheaper per unit to make a 10M widgets than it is to make 10. This goes for electricity too. Couple that with a 200 year head start and an individual Alternative Energy system can not compete with the grid in a dollar for dollar comparison.

But, if you give value to oil independence, Grid independence, and renewable energy at least as long as the equipment is viable + and cost credits, you can justify the expense.

The bottom line is all of our energy comes freely from the sun (or a sun in nuclear) in one way or another, but harnessing that energy is complicated and expensive.

 

[cvairwerks]

You need to look carefully at some CPUC regulations that are scheduled to into effect. It basically kills the solar systems for homeowners. Power buyback was cut to something like 6 cents kWh, and there is a mandatory monthly connection fee per kW capacity of your solar system. Lots of people that have had systems installed recently are now getting slammed and it's gone from a roughly 20 year payback on installation cost, to a 40+ year payback.

 

[ace10]

Small changes in lifestyle can make a big difference. Maybe it's not reasonable or possible, but can you turn back the thermostat a degree or two during your cooling months? Is your water heater set to an appropriate temp?

 

[mike93lx]

At 15 cents for power, getting an installed system will likely never pay back.

DIY could be a different story and getting rid of batteries would greatly reduce the cost, but probably only makes sense if you have enough daytime load to use what the array can generate

 

[dcg9381]

Has anyone installed solar lately where the cost zeroed out at 10 years? I am still thinking it is 20 - 25 years before the cost zeros out.

Yes. But DIY install 100%. 8 years approximate payback, depending on your local utility rate.
And our utility just voted this year to cut wholesale power "payback" (the rates they pay me for over-production) by 50% - so that would put a nail in the coffin of ANY solar project that depends on over-production for payback.

Commercial solar can make sense in places like Hawaii where power is 2-3x more expensive than it is here.

Here, the "catch" is that they "net meter" so as long as I consume more power than I use monthly, I get "paid back" at retail rates. If I was to over produce for a month, they'd pay me a fraction (less than 50%) of retail rates for power. They're doing this to "discourage" owners from over producing so we "don't become like California". About 25%-30% of our utility bill is covered by solar production. Our annual energy cost is probably around $2400/yr give or take. But our "Texas" rates are pretty low.

Never mind that the Texas grid failed last year due to (largely) gas supplies freezing up and local power producers (solar) decrease total demand.. Nah, we can't have a "green grid" like those darn Californians.

I've done 4 installs (off the top of my head) - the oldest was more than 10 years ago. I've never had a call back on a failure. Panels DO degrade over time, but that time period is probably like 15 years and even then, they're still producing power, just not as optimally.

If you're worried about a "total failure" - do a micro-inverter system. Buy something from a company that's been around for a while... But it's all a craps shoot, even when I bought panels by Sharp (who I assumed would be in business for a while) - they stopped production.

IMHO, I think it's pretty rare for a PV system to have a "total failure". If you're on an inverter system and the inverter fails, it can be replaced... Not cheap, but it can be replaced in a day. Manufacturers like Frontius have been around for a long time. Panel manufacturers are more come and go...

My "guess" is that a retail warranty on panels doesn't cover the labor costs of replacing panels... But I'm guessing.

If you guys can wire a garage, you can do solar (that's my GJ non-professional opinion).. Will your local jurisdiction LET you do it (permits, etc) - that's a different matter.

Here electricians and solar installers seem to be separate beasts (contractors).

 

[earl84]

I did a (mostly) DIY ground mount grid-tied install in Colorado at 7000' elevation. I did pay an electrician for the intial hookups into the main service panel. All in, I was at just over $12k. This was for permitting, equipment rental (trencher and skid steer) components, wiring, electrician cost, etc. I kept pretty detailed track of all my costs to help with the federal tax credit for tax season.

Chose to do a grid-tied system, because we have rarely had a power outage and I did not want to deal with batteries, everything from storage to maintenance to expense. I have a small system on an RV that works very well, but the experience with batteries told me I didnt want to deal with that on a system large enough for the house.

Turned it on May 10th, and to date, it has produced over $1000 worth of electricity at my current retail rate of $.134725/kw. Production should go up now as the daylight hours are increasing greatly.

I calculated the payback to be in the 6 year range. This is greatly assisted by the federal tax credit and my power company rebate of $750.

 

[duneslider]

I have done the math too and have a hard time making it work compared to taking that same cash and investing it.

I lot of people like to give the power companies a bad name when it comes to how solar is handled but the issue is more complex than people understand. I know someone who works for a large power company in what they call Load Research. Which is basically data collection and data research to guesstimate load. Anyway, I asked him why the power company was so against solar, net metering, etc, etc.
He said they aren't against it at all and would be fine with every home having solar the problem is how people feel they should be paid for the solar they generate and don't use and when the solar is produced, and what happens when the solar isn't produced.

Solar for the most part is NOT producing power during the peak load times. Most of the year in most locations of the country peak times are 7am-11am and 5pm-9pm. Most peoples solar arrays are not angled to make peak power during those times of the day and the peak producing time of most solar arrays falls between the peak times. So, people are wanting to sell their solar power to the power company for peak rates and at a time that the power company doesn't need the extra power.

Solar power isn't 100% reliable, if its cloudy the panels aren't making power and people still want to have power. So the power company still has to produce power for your house even if you aren't using it because you might need it and they still have to produce power for your house for the 20 other hours of the day when your panels aren't making any or enough.

So, basically, there is very little benefit to the power company for residential users to have solar the way most systems are setup. Now, if you add in storage then it becomes a different story but storing power is still very expensive.

My local utility has built some solar farms and I was able to sign up for what they call 100% solar, "all" my power comes from what is produced at the solar farm and I have a fixed power rate that won't change for 20 years or something like that. I pay .118, which is less than peak but slightly higher than the lowest tier currently but the lowest tier will be going up over time and will eventually be higher than what I am paying.

Now, if you want the feel good that comes from solar then only you can put a value on what that feel good is to you. Its the same with electric cars, I still don't think they really make sense most of the time but they might make you feel good sometimes (except in the dead of winter when you have to wear a coat and gloves in the car to keep warm because the electric heater isn't that good.)

 

[andyvh1959]

In my cycle shop garage I am installing a four panel solar 12v stand alone system. It'll do all the lights (off road 12v light bars), workbench lights, and multiple 12v outlets to plug in the fleet of motorcycle batteries. I've been curious about solar for many years and decided to do a small stand alone system to get familiar with it. Not cheap, for the power I get. But like I said I'm doing it to learn. For my 12 v system I've got: $600 in the charge controller, $125 in the combiner box (breaker panel), $180 in two large marine batteries, $640 in the four panels, probably another $200 in all the various wire, cables, 12v power outlets, $200 in all the lights. So $1945 total for 880watts of 12v power.

The batteries easily keep ahead of the demand and I can operate the lights as long as I want. Plenty bright in there.

 

[dcg9381]

I have done the math too and have a hard time making it work compared to taking that same cash and investing it.

Solar for the most part is NOT producing power during the peak load times. Most of the year in most locations of the country peak times are 7am-11am and 5pm-9pm. Most peoples solar arrays are not angled to make peak power during those times of the day and the peak producing time of most solar arrays falls between the peak times. So, people are wanting to sell their solar power to the power company for peak rates and at a time that the power company doesn't need the extra power.

Solar power isn't 100% reliable, if its cloudy the panels aren't making power and people still want to have power. So the power company still has to produce power for your house even if you aren't using it because you might need it and they still have to produce power for your house for the 20 other hours of the day when your panels aren't making any or enough.

So, basically, there is very little benefit to the power company for residential users to have solar the way most systems are setup. Now, if you add in storage then it becomes a different story but storing power is still very expensive.


Now, if you want the feel good that comes from solar then only you can put a value on what that feel good is to you. Its the same with electric cars, I still don't think they really make sense most of the time but they might make you feel good sometimes (except in the dead of winter when you have to wear a coat and gloves in the car to keep warm because the electric heater isn't that good.)

Have you factored in the federal tax rebate? And what's your assumed rate of return on cash investment, because I agree with you over the last 5 years I would have made a LOT more money in the market than solar will pay back in 10 years. But that may not always be the case. I could argue that "it adds value" to the residence, but I only believe that's true with about 50% of buyers.

I'm in Texas, so "peak load" - at least predictable peak load (summer) runs from 11am till say 5pm - and that's well within the optimal window for our production. So we're producing power when it's sunny and hot out - I'd say that's pretty "optimal".

When is it not optimal? In the winter in Texas when we get a mega-freeze, it's cloudy, and we're at or below 20 degrees. But no one here designs for that. Everyone turns on their heat strips because heat pumps don't work very well.

I agree that solar isn't reliable (doesn't work with clouds) so a power company cannot assume that arrays will decrease grid load in all cases. Then again, these companies are probably behind the times. It's not that difficult (as a pilot) to determine when things will be overcast in the (reasonable) future, so I'd wager that things could be optimized.

What will change the game - when and if we get it is storage technology. The ability to store enough PV power - large amounts - for long periods of time - will be a game changer as that flattens the "unreliable" curve quite a bit. I know Tesla is building stuff like this, but it still remains very expensive and as "commercial" - I don't see it as something that is a "real solution" yet.... Maybe we'll have something different decades in the future.

Being off grid - it's doable now (for a small fortune) for a normal residence. I'm helping a buddy setup enough solar panels and Tesla batteries to run power for several days. But my advice to him is "not practical, you're doing it because you WANT it, not because it's a cost effective solution".

 

[Git]

I would certainly disagree with most of what duneslider wrote. Here in California, where the OP lives, the three biggest power companies (SCE, SDG&E and PGE) are Investor Owned Utilities (IOU). Which means they are for profit. Their customers don't really count, their shareholders do. I posted this in another thread, but the Public Utility Commission members are appointed by the Governor and are basically his and the Utility Companies' lapdogs. Just recently they tried to push through a change in Net Metering that would basically gut residential solar in California. The public outcry was so tremendous and they decided to table it for it now.

Column: California utility regulators are lapdogs. The fix: make them elected.

Thomas Elias writes: There's a push to disband the Public Utilities Commission. A better idea is to make it accountable to the people.

www.desertsun.com

Basically, solar can work and it can work very well but it depends on the Net Metering Agreement that every Grid Tied solar installation is forced to sign. When solar first started out in California under Net Metering 1.0, solar customers were put on an 'annual billing' with a 'true up' on the last month. During the course of a year, solar output varies and sometimes a homeowner's system will generate more electricity than the home is using. The excess electricity is pushed onto the grid and the homeowner gets a credit per kWh at the actual cost of that electricity at the time (peak hours cost more for example). Then at the end of the year, you settle up. If you used more than you generated, you pay them, if you actually overproduced they will pay you the wholesale rate (roughly $.04) or you can roll it over for credit.

Keep in mind, any excess electricity you produce that goes onto the grid is basically flowing to your neighbor's house and the utility is going to charge them the full price for that electricity. That is why under NEM 1.0 you get full price for the credit.

But, being investor owned utilities that have neglected the grid for years, failed to properly maintain their equipment which includes trimming trees back from the power lines, a number of wild fires have been started which resulted in a lot of people losing their lives. This problem goes way back, long before solar... PG&E declared bankruptcy last year and now it is time for all their customers to pay the price

PG&E, Troubled California Utility, Emerges From Bankruptcy (Published 2020)

The company, which has a new board and chief executive, said it had put $5.4 billion and its stock in a trust for victims of wildfires started by its equipment.

www.nytimes.com

Electricity cost in California have skyrocket in the last couple of years. When Net Metering 2.0 went into effect in 2017 - it forced all solar customers onto Time of Use rates. From 4 to 9 pm during the week, the cost is $.49 per kWh in my area! And guess what, TOU rates is a way to extract more money from customers, I know because I tried it for a year and was going to have to pay about $800 more than my tiered rate plan but then their 'bill protection' kicked in and dropped the price back down.

Elon Musk says California proposal to cut solar incentives is a 'bizarre anti-environment move'

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that California's solar tax proposal was a "bizarre anti-environment move by govt of California."

electrek.co

Now, getting back to solar, yes I had solar installed in 2016 and we should 'zero out' (as the OP put it) this year. My actual out of pocket costs, after the federal rebate, etc was $29k and to date the system has generated 115.01 MWh which is 115,010 kWh. If you do the math using $.16 per kWh that is a little over $17k in electricity so where the OP is located, it is going to take longer to break even. Where I am located in S Cal, the cheapest rate is $.25 per kWh so where I stand right now is my system made a minimum of $28K in electricity. So it has worked well for us.

I have no worries about the system lasting 20 years, I can't imagine having any problems replacing 'parts'. You basically have solar panels and some sort of inverter - string, micro inverters, string with optimizers, etc. All these parts should be readily available.

Also under the proposed NEM 3 agreement, they wanted to push the pay back time out to 20 years, because 'they' felt lower income people can't afford solar panels and were paying an unfair burden to maintain the grid. Yet we are to believe these same people can afford Electric Vehicles?

CPUC’S Proposed NEM-3 Decision Would Hurt Low-Income Solar Adoption — CA Solar & Storage Association

By 2030, California needs to shut down dirty power plants by building a million sun-charged batteries on apartments, housing developments, schools, and churches and throughout our most polluted communities. Achieving this goal will help put an end to California’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels and

calssa.org

 

[Git]

What will change the game - when and if we get it is storage technology. The ability to store enough PV power - large amounts - for long periods of time - will be a game changer as that flattens the "unreliable" curve quite a bit. I know Tesla is building stuff like this, but it still remains very expensive and as "commercial" - I don't see it as something that is a "real solution" yet.... Maybe we'll have something different decades in the future.

Being off grid - it's doable now (for a small fortune) for a normal residence. I'm helping a buddy setup enough solar panels and Tesla batteries to run power for several days. But my advice to him is "not practical, you're doing it because you WANT it, not because it's a cost effective solution".

I think the future in ESS (Electrical Storage System) is with 'iron-flow' batteries. I can't imagine currently spending money on enough Powerwall type batteries that are large enough to power a home for several days - why not just install a natural gas generator?

Iron flow battery tech shows promise for mid-duration energy storage - pv magazine USA

The ESS battery systems have a prescribed design life of 25 years, but the battery modules, electrolyte, plumbing, and other components may well last for decades longer with proper maintenance.

pv-magazine-usa.com

 

[FredWanaker]

Interesting comments from many. Pretty much the same as what I had guessed it still was.

 

[Git]

Ya, that pretty much sums it up. I would add that the cost of electricity is only going to go up. If you are going to stay in that house for a number of years it may be worth it, but otherwise with what your paying for electricity, it probably is not worth it

 

[brianh]

Mine paid for itself about 6 months ago 9k system installed in 2014. I am in NY where the rate with all the charges is around 22 cents a KWH and the provider is raising rates again this year. I did it for more reasons than financial anyway, having it paid off and essentially free power is a bonus

 

[FredWanaker]

also, my back will not let me DIY type things anymore. Even something as simple as the water heater I had to get a plumber to do. Changing a faucet is about the extent of where pain begins. I have about 20 sprinkler heads to change and have been delaying for months because the thought of kneeling that long is too painful. i'd have to pay someone to install solar. A 4.5 K solar system would give us about 1/2 our power needs, and would probably cost $15,000 here. Amortized over 15 years that would be $1000 a year. But we would still pay about $750 a year for power so it would increase our electric bill about $30 - $40 a month. I think they design the numbers that way to keep people from competing with them. And if you do choose to do solar then they are using your money (OPM) to accomplish their goals. It is like PGE's debts from the fires. Does anyone really think their protected investors are going to pay a dime of the penalties and court cases those fires generated. OPM will pay it. Just like everything else. And one only needs to look to the north to see what happens when people protest about conditions.

 

[FredWanaker]

Mine paid for itself about 6 months ago 9k system installed in 2014. I am in NY where the rate with all the charges is around 22 cents a KWH and the provider is raising rates again this year. I did it for more reasons than financial anyway, having it paid off and essentially free power is a bonus

fortunately the blended power rate to us last year was just under 16 cents. We are in a municipally owned utility area. Where we are the bulk of power used is for AC in summer. The heat soak is mostly late afternoon and at night. Between skunks on neighbor's properties, and fires we can't use the whole house fan much at night anymore, which is what we used to do years ago. And with crime on the rise everywhere, we also have to bypass the window alarms when we do it so that is an uncomfortable risk. With the gun control here, using one on an intruder is a legal nightmare. And, some cities nearby now are literally wanting home owners to open their doors to the criminals and the homeless rather than defend one's self against intrusion. So, we'd have to have batteries that would last most of the night if we were to get any reasonable savings. Solar is about the last efficiency step I can take on this house and it just doesn't seem like it pencils out.

 

[ycgoat]

SO if I am interpreting what was posted so far by existing solar owners. Is this a fair statement.

No one has come out ahead yet , but are hoping for a return on investment soon, and all are, or, have been depending on subsidies to include selling their power back to the grid to bring the break even date to be before the equipment re-investment date. And, that they are all in geographical areas with a high solar potential.

 

[nadogail]

On the advice of my tax advisor, I entered a Power Purchase Agreement with my Solar Company. Because of the way the Tax Credits work, and the depreciation of our rental property we had nothing to gain from both the federal and state tax credits.
I was able to lock in the price of the energy I get from the Solar Panels. The average price SDG&E gets is over 20 cents per Kilowatt Hour, my Solar Power costs me 3.5 cents per KWH with a 20 year lock. I know I did not get the absolute best deal, but I feel that I got the best deal for the least capital outlay.

 

[mike93lx]

SO if I am interpreting what was posted so far by existing solar owners. Is this a fair statement.

No one has come out ahead yet , but are hoping for a return on investment soon, and all are, or, have been depending on subsidies to include selling their power back to the grid to bring the break even date to be before the equipment re-investment date. And, that they are all in geographical areas with a high solar potential.

From a purely dollars and cents perspective, I think that is pretty fair.

But sometimes people want solar for other reasons. Reducing energy consumption from fossil fuels, reducing reliance on the grid, having backup power, the tech is fun and interesting, and probably others.

I am likely going to put in a small system in the next year or so just to try it out. Charge my cordless OPE batteries, maybe run my computer equipment while I work from home etc. I doubt I will get batteries up front and probably won't grid tie it, but it's a start

 

[ycgoat]

Here is a sales / tech briefing I get all the time as I am sure many who are interested do.

 

[Git]

SO if I am interpreting what was posted so far by existing solar owners. Is this a fair statement.

No one has come out ahead yet , but are hoping for a return on investment soon, and all are, or, have been depending on subsidies to include selling their power back to the grid to bring the break even date to be before the equipment re-investment date. And, that they are all in geographical areas with a high solar potential.

I would say we are actually ahead at this point. Without analyzing every monthly bill for the last several years - I used the cheapest rate I pay under the tiered system for my example above.. Last August we used 960 kWh from the grid. Under the the 'tiered' rate plan, Tier 1 is $.26 for the first 586 kWh and then price increases to $.34 for Tier 2 and if you get into Tier 3 the price is $.42. We can get into Tier 2 during the summer but usually avoid Tier 3

Bottom line is the Solar Production modeling software is pretty advanced/accurate. If you actually had a reputable company come out to your house and run the numbers, they should be able to give you a pretty accurate numbers on how long it would take to break even. My solar production was guaranteed for 10 years, starting at 19,900 kWh a year with a slight decrease for degradation for each year. Almost 7 years later, last year the system produced slightly over 21,000 kWh

And yes, if they drastically change the Net Metering Agreement to something like giving homeowners the wholesale rate on excess energy instead of the actual going rate, that would change everything and in some situations solar would not be worth the cost. People were talking about the $8 per kW installed fee per month. For me that would mean I would be paying almost $100 a month due the size of my system just to be connected to the grid. If that went through, I would probably end up disconnecting my solar from the grid to avoid paying that fee/tax and get some sort of battery and just run a parallel system or something

 

[Git]

/rant

What really 'gets me' is that California is supposedly the leader when it comes to Solar and Electric Vehicles. Yet we have problems with the grid - random brownouts, I get notices every now and then that the power may be cut off due to high winds or some other stupid reason.

They shut down San Onofre Nuclear Power plant about 10 years early due to environmental concerns, they are shutting down the last remaining Nuke plant (Diablo Canyon) in 2024 (renewable energy has priority over nuclear) and they actually going to build 'temporary natural gas power plants to avoid brownouts. And now they tried to basically kill off residential solar, we will have to wait and see what the Public Utility Commission decides. My electric rate has already gone up over 20% in the last couple of years. Remember Natural Gas and Nuclear is considered 'evil' to some people since it is not renewable energy.

Yet all the Electric Vehicles Owners point to 'solar power' will be the way forward. They will charge their vehicles at home (overnight), and not to worry, solar is the way forward....

https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article256286862.html

California Adding 5 Temporary Natural Gas Power Plants to Help Alleviate Energy Shortage – California Globe

californiaglobe.com

/end of rant

 

[brianh]

fortunately the blended power rate to us last year was just under 16 cents. We are in a municipally owned utility area. Where we are the bulk of power used is for AC in summer. The heat soak is mostly late afternoon and at night. Between skunks on neighbor's properties, and fires we can't use the whole house fan much at night anymore, which is what we used to do years ago. And with crime on the rise everywhere, we also have to bypass the window alarms when we do it so that is an uncomfortable risk. With the gun control here, using one on an intruder is a legal nightmare. And, some cities nearby now are literally wanting home owners to open their doors to the criminals and the homeless rather than defend one's self against intrusion. So, we'd have to have batteries that would last most of the night if we were to get any reasonable savings. Solar is about the last efficiency step I can take on this house and it just doesn't seem like it pencils out.

You do not need batteries, look up grid tie systems they have been out basically since solar came out and are the majority of installs the only time you need batteries is if you are off grid.

This thread has a whole lot of speculation from people who have no familiarity with how it works.

Our system paid for itself in 7 years grid tied net metering.

Really all the info is all out there.

 

[Git]

LOL - I just saw this article. Let's go EV's!

"the ASCE report anticipates that by 2029, the U.S. will face a gap of about $200 billion in funding to strengthen the grid and meet renewable energy goals." But let's spend $500 Billion on EV chargers...

click the pic for link to the article

 

[mike93lx]

I would say we are actually ahead at this point. Without analyzing every monthly bill for the last several years - I used the cheapest rate I pay under the tiered system for my example above.. Last August we used 960 kWh from the grid. Under the the 'tiered' rate plan, Tier 1 is $.26 for the first 586 kWh and then price increases to $.34 for Tier 2 and if you get into Tier 3 the price is $.42. We can get into Tier 2 during the summer but usually avoid Tier 3

Bottom line is the Solar Production modeling software is pretty advanced/accurate. If you actually had a reputable company come out to your house and run the numbers, they should be able to give you a pretty accurate numbers on how long it would take to break even. My solar production was guaranteed for 10 years, starting at 19,900 kWh a year with a slight decrease for degradation for each year. Almost 7 years later, last year the system produced slightly over 21,000 kWh

And yes, if they drastically change the Net Metering Agreement to something like giving homeowners the wholesale rate on excess energy instead of the actual going rate, that would change everything and in some situations solar would not be worth the cost. People were talking about the $8 per kW installed fee per month. For me that would mean I would be paying almost $100 a month due the size of my system just to be connected to the grid. If that went through, I would probably end up disconnecting my solar from the grid to avoid paying that fee/tax and get some sort of battery and just run a parallel system or something

Those prices are nuts.

I pay 0.12 in VA. MA was about the same

 

[dcg9381]

I think the future in ESS (Electrical Storage System) is with 'iron-flow' batteries. I can't imagine currently spending money on enough Powerwall type batteries that are large enough to power a home for several days - why not just install a natural gas generator?

I couldn't agree more on the generator versus battery point for the "several days" use case.
To me, the use case for batteries is basically "no power drop out" ever. Apparently the PowerWall (and likely other competitors) can switch so fast that most devices don't notice the interruption in power. And they are (at least per the specs I've seen) designed to work with generators - so you can have the best of both worlds.

I don't know anything about ESS - but as soon as we can "store" large amounts of PV power cheaply, it'll be a game changer.

 

[dcg9381]

/rant

What really 'gets me' is that California is supposedly the leader when it comes to Solar and Electric Vehicles. Yet we have problems with the grid - random brownouts, I get notices every now and then that the power may be cut off due to high winds or some other stupid reason.

Yet all the Electric Vehicles Owners point to 'solar power' will be the way forward. They will charge their vehicles at home (overnight), and not to worry, solar is the way forward....
/end of rant

Well, I'm in a home state where we hate anything green and the vast majority of our power comes from oil and gas. You know, the same industries that provide massive capital to political campaigns in the state who have authority in our power infrastructure. To be fair, oil and gas are a huge portion of our Texas' state economy, so I "get it" (politically speaking).

Then again, Tesla is here building cars (sorry, California). And more and more of Texas is becoming "tech" dependent in terms of economy.

But guess what? We still have brown-outs too. Oil and gas companies apparently didn't design or "winterize" in 2021 and the resulting lack of power - in some cases for more than a week - that got people killed. Lots of people blamed "green power" - they don't care to know that frozen natural gas valves don't work very well and that was the big problem. It's just complete misinformation and lack of public understanding.

I DO agree that there is currently a limit to how much "grid" can be "green" - because it can be unpredictable, but where I am, we are not anywhere near that limit.

Even in the summer, when demand goes "high" we have rolling brown-outs, just the same as California.

And look, I love a good American V8 (or Diesel I-6) just as much as everyone else on GJ, but when Rivian has a truck that will tow 10k lbs and beat my Corvette in the quarter mile, that technology has my attention. We produce enough solar power at home to power that EV "for free" with no additional load on the grid. It's creates a problem with road funding (as that's provided by taxes on fuel) - but I assume that can be sorted out.

 

[FredWanaker]

Well, I'm in a home state where we hate anything green and the vast majority of our power comes from oil and gas. You know, the same companies that provide massive capital to political campaigns in the state. To be fair, oil and gas are a huge portion of our Texas' state economy, so I "get it" (politically speaking).

Then again, Tesla is here building cars (sorry, California). And more and more of Texas is becoming "tech" dependent in terms of economy.

But guess what? We still have brown-outs too. Oil and gas companies apparently didn't design or "winterize" in 2021 and the resulting lack of power - in some cases for more than a week - that got people killed. Lots of people blamed "green power" - they don't care to know that frozen natural gas valves don't work very well and that was the big problem. It's just complete misinformation and lack of public understanding.

I DO agree that there is currently a limit to how much "grid" can be "green" - because it can be unpredictable, but where I am, we are not anywhere near that limit.

Even in the summer, when demand goes "high" we have rolling brown-outs, just the same as California.

And look, I love a good American V8 (or Diesel I-6) just as much as everyone else on GJ, but when Rivian has a truck that will tow 10k lbs and beat my Corvette in the quarter mile, that technology has my attention. We produce enough solar power at home to power that EV "for free" with no additional load on the grid.

That is great, I'll take one if someone can deliver it, install, and pass permits for $10,000. That way I can amortize the cost plus other fees and costs that will remain, over 10 years compared to what I am spending now, otherwise it won't address the question posed. Twenty years ago in 2002 my annual electric here was $719. I worked then and was gone all day. The house was not heated, or cooled during the day. I only turned AC on at night, and often ran the whole house fan, although the AC system only had an efficiency of about Seer 6 and had leaky ducts. Now the house has dual pane windows, is tyveked, has a more efficient 14 SEER system with good ducting, and R50 insulation. The garage is insulated as well. At night it is 75f - 80f in summer instead of 115F. Last year the electric bills totaled $1,422 but there are two people home during the day. I am retired and the other half remotes to work. I haven't seen a reply yet that suggests a cost effective solution in this situation. I do agree that it works for some people. I'd like to find a way for it to work for me too as others here said they felt the same, but we can't make the numbers work out. I guess that's math.

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[dcg9381]

That is great, I'll take one if someone can deliver it, install, and pass permits for $10,000.

Yea, that's the big difference. I can do it myself for $10k. Most places won't let you. There are probably a number of ways you could get "almost there" with the assistance of a licensed electrician - that's my suggestion.

I've got zero argument on the math that you are facing. The margins on installs are pretty high, that's why I've done a few systems for home builders.

I completely agree that money may be better spent in insulation, sometimes in higher SEER heating/cooling, etc... But there are limits to that also. We could have built a home with R-30 walls if we wanted, but economically that makes no sense (at least in my lifetime) in our climate.

 

[FredWanaker]

yes. I understand. Guess solar pricing is still not realistic to solving the issue although we seem able to drop whole systems into the 3rd world for free where they have no power.

 

[mike93lx]

yes. I understand. Guess solar pricing is still not realistic to solving the issue although we seem able to drop whole systems into the 3rd world for free where they have no power.

A simple system to turn on a couple lights is not going to do you much at home.

There are plenty of options for cheap, portable 100w systems, with battery packs. But 100w doesn't go very far in an American house

 

[WisJim]

My first PV system pretty much paid for itself as soon as it was working, compared to the cost of bringing in power lines. That was back in 1982 and the panels cost at least 10 times as much as they do today--but we used minimal power back then, and all wood heat. My current system is much bigger, doesn't depend on batteries, and provides 100% of our electricity for our house, charging our car, and much of our heat, for 10 months of the year. Our electric bill is bigger in January and February as we don't produce any surplus those months. If you need a back up system, a generator is cheaper than batteries.
A do-it-yourself system could be installed for $1 to $1.50 a watt, including hiring an electrician for final hook up. I've helped 8 to 10, maybe more, friends figure out and install their systems for that price range, and many of them had never done more to their house than paint a room or hang a shelf.

 

[walrus]

Maine has high electric rates, just went up 80 % on delivery and another 30 % coming on actual power. I just did a ground mount, 8600 watts, my labor, in for 15500. Not going to pay in 10 year unless power keeps going up which we all know is going to happen. Take the 26% this year so that makes it 11 grand or so. Might pay off but I don't know what its going to produce quite yet. Biggest day I seen yet is 40 kWh. Its only been online a month, I've produced over 500kWh and this isn't prime time.

 

[walrus]

My first PV system pretty much paid for itself as soon as it was working, compared to the cost of bringing in power lines. That was back in 1982 and the panels cost at least 10 times as much as they do today--but we used minimal power back then, and all wood heat. My current system is much bigger, doesn't depend on batteries, and provides 100% of our electricity for our house, charging our car, and much of our heat, for 10 months of the year. Our electric bill is bigger in January and February as we don't produce any surplus those months. If you need a back up system, a generator is cheaper than batteries.
A do-it-yourself system could be installed for $1 to $1.50 a watt, including hiring an electrician for final hook up. I've helped 8 to 10, maybe more, friends figure out and install their systems for that price range, and many of them had never done more to their house than paint a room or hang a shelf.

Much of your heat?? How big is this system and what are using for heat. Mini Splits?

 

[sjvicker]

Being off grid - it's doable now (for a small fortune) for a normal residence. I'm helping a buddy setup enough solar panels and Tesla batteries to run power for several days. But my advice to him is "not practical, you're doing it because you WANT it, not because it's a cost effective solution".

I'm in the process of building a small 2kw camp solar system and in the next few years I'm planning a full residential off grid solar system. The research has been fun and it pretty much shakes out like buying a car for status, you can buy the Tesla if you want cool looking powerwalls or you can save a ton of money by going with ones that get the job done for a fraction of the cost. https://www.signaturesolar.com/collections/battery/gyll

With all of the investment in battery tech anything purchased today will be outdated soon. No sense in buying the powerwall other than to say you have a powerwall.

 

[mike93lx]

With all of the investment in battery tech anything purchased today will be outdated soon. No sense in buying the powerwall other than to say you have a powerwall.

There is unlikely ever to be a point when this isn't the case. You can always wait for the next thing and never have anything, or jump in at some point and get its benefits

 

[Copymutt]

You could run Hamsters in a wheel tied to an alternator and you’d come out ahead. What’s going to happen to the cost of grid tied power will make the present inflation look like current CD returns.
The agenda of canceling every grid source except solar and wind will not cut it. Generate on site or sign up for contracts tied to your mortgage terms, creative financing. Same scenario for gasoline, diesel.