Sorry to revive a dead thread, but I've been researching gas furnace vs. high efficiency heat pump, and I'm curious about the above conclusion.
There are some "heat fuel cost" calculators online. The one I like the best is an Excel calculator from Purdue:
https://goo.gl/XKVFim, but there are others and they all seem pretty consistent with each other.
They give results similar to below:
at 12 cent/kWh, electric heating (resistive) costs about $35.84 per million Btu.
at $1.00/Therm, an 80% AFUE NG furnace is about $12.50 per million Btu, and a 96% AFUE NG furnace is about $10.50 per million Btu.
at 12 cent/kWh, a 9 HSPF electric heat pump costs about $13.32 per million Btu, and a 10 HSPF electric heat pump costs about $11.99 per million Btu
Based on that data, it seems that a 10 HSPF electric heat pump is cheaper per million Btu ($11.99) than an 80% AFUE natural gas furnace ($12.50).
I understand that, if you live somewhere that is so cold that your heat pump loses its capacity or auxilliary electric heat strips are required, your cost per million Btu on the heat pump would increase.
But say, for example, that you have a Mitsubishi hyper heat unit that is 10 HSPF and maintains 100% heating capacity down to 5 degrees F. As long as it is operating at 100% capacity, you would still be paying $11.99 per milliion Btu, correct? Even at 5 degrees F? And wouldn't that be cheaper than the 80% AFUE NG furnace?
I'm sure terabitdan knows more about this than I do, but I'm just curious why his numbers would suggest that the NG furnace is significantly cheaper to operate than the high efficiency heat pump, while the numbers I'm seeing in the online calculators seem to suggest that a high efficiency heat pump is very comparable to an 80% AFUE furnace (as long as you can avoid relying on auxiliary electric heat strips).
Thoughts/input??