HamAndEggs
Well-known member
Exactly why I got Grid Tied solar and a 27kw generator instead of batteries
solar
- Thread starter FredWanaker
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
It is a math problem. Nothing else. Electricity follows math laws. Finance follows math. Simply put, in my case, we cannot install solar for anywhere close to what we pay for power now and get the money back in less than 20 years. The batteries won't last that long and none of our friends here in the Central Valley have gotten that life out of their solar systems. I am 71 and may life 10 - 12 more years if I am like other males in my family. Or I can go in five years, or two. If I can't buy a solar system cash and zero out the cost in 10 years I am not interested. I don't care if it is roof mounted, replaces a patio cover and only produces partial power, or is an array in the side yard. If it doesn't pencil then it is something I will never buy. I was told 10 years ago when I first looked that the cost of electricity under our utility makes it almost impossible to pencil out. Our utility covers about 2 million people, and there are only 6400 solar installations in that per some numbers they just released. I am not the only one having issues with the math it appears.
mike93lx
ALLIANCE MEMBER
If you only care about the cost side of it, sure.
There are intangibles, though, that some care about.
When I end up doing some panels, I will calculate an roi just because that is how I think, but it won't be the driving factor
HamAndEggs
Well-known member
Make sure your cost estimates also include possible price increases, a lot I have seen only includes current prices
Buying solar NOW locks in how much you are paying for power for at least 30 years, and then beats inflation too
Buying solar NOW locks in how much you are paying for power for at least 30 years, and then beats inflation too
Without a proper net metering agreement, and spending tens of thousands of $$$$$ on batteries, solar doesn't pencil out. I think Fred is being very realistic and I laugh at the thought that he should spend the money anyways because it's the 'right thing to do'. Hey, in S Cal, I can purchase electricity through their 'Green Rate Plan' which allows me to purchase 'renewable energy' so I can feel good about myself. Hey, it only costs $.08 per kWh more than their normal rates...
Green Rates
Explore resources and support for SCE customers to better manage energy and costs. Green Rates Residential Rate Plans & Details.
www.sce.com
There are different plans you can choose from. They are basically forcing everyone by default on to Time Of Use plans, and depending on what is considered Prime, the price can vary substantially
So ya, if you want to pay $.08 more per kWh so you can say your going green, they will have no problem charging you $.69 from 5 to 8 PM on that plan... This is what SCE would charge me. (I am on a grandfathered tiered rate plan)
TOU 5 to 8 PM summer
TOU 4 to 9 PM Summer
So ya, if you want to pay $.08 more per kWh so you can say your going green, they will have no problem charging you $.69 from 5 to 8 PM on that plan... This is what SCE would charge me. (I am on a grandfathered tiered rate plan)
TOU 5 to 8 PM summer
TOU 4 to 9 PM Summer
HamAndEggs
Well-known member
Holy Bananas, those On-Peak times are crazy!
Running my generator costs around 13c/kwh at 25% load, would be cheaper to switch to than than pay those
Running my generator costs around 13c/kwh at 25% load, would be cheaper to switch to than than pay those
This is a good video;
TLDR:
So basically this guy got ripped off by a for profit solar sales/lending company but is going to expand his solar array because the numbers do make sense as long as you don't get ripped off $20k
pro solar video (with some good points) with a clickbait title
I watched most of that video and I would agree. The guy didn't do his homework, didn't get at least (3) bids, didn't have the money to pay for the system outright so relied on 'their' financing, etc. I agree - he screwed up
I spent a lot of time and effort when I was researching solar back in 2016. As I posted before, my system ended up costing me $29k after all the rebates, etc, and all I did was write a check. At the time, I looked into a DYI system and even looked at prices from Renvu, a well known internet solar equipment dealer. This was a pretty good apple to apple comparison, same panels, inverter, etc. Bottom line - I spent about $10k more by using my contractor versus doing it myself. Keep in mind, I have 39 panels on my 2 story roof and each panels weighs about 40 lbs. (Not something I really wanted to do at my age). Also, my system has a 10 year production guarantee, 10 year warranty on roof leaks, and the equipment is covered for 25 years. I rationalized that I would get the money back - it would just take a year and half longer to break even versus me trying to do it all myself. One of the best decisions I ever made, especially with the way the cost of electricity is sky rocketing in California.
The rule of thumb when getting solar quotes is the 'price per watt'. You take the total out-of-pocket cost of the system that you are considering and divide it by the number of watts of capacity in the system. Using my numbers, I paid a total of $43,605 (that includes everything and is before rebates, tax incentives, etc) and the system size, mine is 12.48 kW DC (12,480 watts). System size is simply the number of panels, I have 39, and the rated output of each panel, mine are 320 watts each. 39 x 320 = 12,480
So I ended up paying $43,605 / 12,480 = $3.49 per watt. That was a little on the high side in 2016, but I had extra work done - they moved/rerouted about 3 plumbing stacks, changed out 4 eyebrow type roof vents, all conduit was run through the attic, and it wasn't very common at the time, but they guaranteed the production for 10 years or they would fix it/pay me the balance.
I spent a lot of time and effort when I was researching solar back in 2016. As I posted before, my system ended up costing me $29k after all the rebates, etc, and all I did was write a check. At the time, I looked into a DYI system and even looked at prices from Renvu, a well known internet solar equipment dealer. This was a pretty good apple to apple comparison, same panels, inverter, etc. Bottom line - I spent about $10k more by using my contractor versus doing it myself. Keep in mind, I have 39 panels on my 2 story roof and each panels weighs about 40 lbs. (Not something I really wanted to do at my age). Also, my system has a 10 year production guarantee, 10 year warranty on roof leaks, and the equipment is covered for 25 years. I rationalized that I would get the money back - it would just take a year and half longer to break even versus me trying to do it all myself. One of the best decisions I ever made, especially with the way the cost of electricity is sky rocketing in California.
The rule of thumb when getting solar quotes is the 'price per watt'. You take the total out-of-pocket cost of the system that you are considering and divide it by the number of watts of capacity in the system. Using my numbers, I paid a total of $43,605 (that includes everything and is before rebates, tax incentives, etc) and the system size, mine is 12.48 kW DC (12,480 watts). System size is simply the number of panels, I have 39, and the rated output of each panel, mine are 320 watts each. 39 x 320 = 12,480
So I ended up paying $43,605 / 12,480 = $3.49 per watt. That was a little on the high side in 2016, but I had extra work done - they moved/rerouted about 3 plumbing stacks, changed out 4 eyebrow type roof vents, all conduit was run through the attic, and it wasn't very common at the time, but they guaranteed the production for 10 years or they would fix it/pay me the balance.
mike93lx
ALLIANCE MEMBER
I can't imagine signing a contract for that much money and not understanding it. If you can't understand it on your own, ask for help or hire a lawyer. I find it hard to sympathize with his self inflicted problem
If they'd have taken two weeks to install would this video even been made?
dcg9381
Well-known member
I assume that's price per "installed" watt? Did they give you a projection based on the actual installation output (orientation and tilt of panels)? The real number you want is price per KWH/year.
I see installers around here install panels all over the place. North/west/east facing roofs. And sure, those panels produce power, but their power production can be very limited due to orientation. And every geography has "average days" of cloud cover, so that's an easy estimation to make it "real".
It's a total snow-job if they assume 365 days of sun or don't account for orientation and tilt, but frankly - I've never seen an estimate by a professional company that doesn't account for those things. This guy says otherwise, that they sold him a system based on rated output.
I'd say if any company wants to sell you a deal on a lease or "zero down" - they should be willing to back it within a minimum performance guarantee.
For reference - my DIY install on a simple shed roof, non-optimal tilt, but optimal orientation (proabably 10-12% less efficient than optimal tilt) was around $8k all in. I don't have city inspectors to bug me, just the POC inspection.
I watched the video:
I'm massively suspicious of "zero down" and "lease" solar options. Way too many ways that this can go wrong and get screwed on retail, etc. My "wholesale markup" when I've done installs for home builders is, frankly 50%. It sounds like this guys install markup was over 100-150%. In certain places where you need a master electrician, 1M in liability, etc - that's going mean higher mark-ups.
Mr onetwo
Well-known member
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
just got an e-mail newsletter from my POC. "Solar customers already connected to the grid before March 1, 2022 can remain on the existing Net Energy Metering (NEM) rate through December 31, 2030 unless they add battery storage with incentives, modify or replace their existing system or move into a new home that has solar installed."
The new rate is 7.4 cents kWh buyback. So time of day pricing at 6-8 pm when the 110F heat is coming in here, and the solar isn't putting out is about 35 cents a kWh. But the excess power one generates from 11am to 3pm gets sold back at 7.4 cents kWh.
Does anyone think they can make the math work at that? If so I'd like to know how. And that newsletter was written before Ukraine was invaded and Brent crude went to $106 barrel today. Also as to EV, how do you charge your EV car during the day when your solar is producing, when it is 40 miles from home at the office. Long extension cord or something?
The new rate is 7.4 cents kWh buyback. So time of day pricing at 6-8 pm when the 110F heat is coming in here, and the solar isn't putting out is about 35 cents a kWh. But the excess power one generates from 11am to 3pm gets sold back at 7.4 cents kWh.
Does anyone think they can make the math work at that? If so I'd like to know how. And that newsletter was written before Ukraine was invaded and Brent crude went to $106 barrel today. Also as to EV, how do you charge your EV car during the day when your solar is producing, when it is 40 miles from home at the office. Long extension cord or something?
HamAndEggs
Well-known member
I could make it work, I would just invest in a smaller system. I have a near constant 2-3kw base load during the day. So If I had 3kw of solar, it would be a very cheap install, and it would just shave my base load off
If you already have solar then you're fine, in 2030 I assume batteries will be much cheaper
fitter30
Well-known member
Sorry i can't afford wood even though i have 60 acres of white oak with house in the middle. Truck, trailer, splitter, chain saw, moving the wood two or three times and oh my time. Or turn up the thermostat.
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
unfortunately we only use about 250 kwh a month during normal solar hours. Most of our usage is at night (TV and AC) or early AM (clothes dryer) when solar is not producing, and in summer late afternoon and at night when the heat soak comes thru the insulation. Using the PCO solar calculator the breakeven would be at 15 years on a small system like that. I am at the point of diminishing returns.
My system was designed and guaranteed to produce 19,900 kWh annually allowing .9% degradation each year for 10 years. In calendar year 2021, (5 years later) the system produced 21,170 kWh and never has been below 19,900kWh
For cost comparison when getting different quotes, the 'cost per watt' is generally used.
Interesting article from Florida - nothing like shutting down a nuke plant 30 years early....
abcnews.go.com
Feds rescind license extension for Florida nuclear plant
Federal officials have reversed a decision to allow a South Florida nuclear power plant to continue running for another 30 years by ordering a new review of potential environmental risks, including those posed by climate change
abcnews.go.com
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
Fed like to screw with Florida lots these days.
No. You would have to sit down with a good solar contractor that has the expensive software and run the numbers. personally, I don't think it would pencil out
Can you get on a tiered rate plan? Here in SCE land, that is what I have. The first 500 kWh or so are considered to be 'tier one' and billed at 26¢ no matter what time of the day they are used.
Sounds like your utility is going from net metering to net billing. So instead of paying the retail rate, they want to pay the 'avoided' rate ( the cost they avoided by buying the electricity from somewhere else). I don't see how they think that is fair when excess electricity from your solar flows back on to the grid, basically to your neighbor's house where they pay the full retail rate.
So much for clean energy/solar paving the way forward for all these electric vehicles everyone is supposed be driving in about 10 years.
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
The solar calc uses this address, my historical electric bills since it is a PCO solar site and they have that data, the tilt and inclination etc., can vary number of panels to get different percentages of use covered. Won't allow to calculate over 100% since they don't want net metering anymore. That is why they lowered the buy back to 7.4 cents per kWh this year. The PCO here is at 100% renewable power for an additional $3 per bill so in their eyes new residential solar isn't helping them achieve anything. If it comes from a panel out in the desert, or on my roof it is still renewable energy. If my goal was just to feel good, for $360 I can guarantee that the next 10 years of my energy is 100% renewable.
dcg9381
Well-known member
Here's how I read that:
"Solar customers already connected to the grid before March 1, 2022 can remain on the existing Net Energy Metering (NEM) rate through December 31, 2030 unless they tell us they changed something or move into a new home."
Point taken. Ignoring the EV chargers that are at the office, I'd say the fact that I go into the office about 1 day every two weeks plays.
But the "practical" answer is you'd need a battery to store that power if we're going to assume that there is no net benefit to the POC (who margins the power I produce) to the rest of the neighborhood throughout our peak energy use period (when it's hot outside).
You're right though - there would be a "peak" period condition (clouds/evening) where solar cannot offset a 50A EV charge without having battery storage. I don't own an EV (yet). Can't I just charge at 15A overnight for my 40 mile drive tomorrow? In places where they have variable rate power, you'd want to charge at night anyway.
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
We already have moved most of our power use to low rate hours. Low rate might be 9 cents a kWh, and high rate time of day 25 cent kWh. I don't play the they'll never know if I don't tell them. God forbid you go 5 years not telling them and they find out somehow you owe them 5 years back energy. I have no desire to be California's poster child on how white people are beating the system. Besides, it may be moot, Putin just put his nuclear weapons on alert. Who knows what he is planning, he is just as crazy as the people driving this solar calculation issue.
dcg9381
Well-known member
I thought CA was mainly an income tax state, but it appears that property tax is a pretty good chunk of local revenue. Do you tell the local tax appraiser when you remodel the inside of your home?
If not, isn't that beating the system?
Here, if they over property tax you (for years) - they don't go back and make it right. Works in reverse also. And perhaps you're right that a power company could go back and assess to "install date" - but find that "unlikely". I might find it likely if there were PV inspections involved when homes changed hands. Here we have that for septic systems, so you don't "cheat" with septic.
I'm generally the guy in Texas that's dismissive of the "nanny state" attitude thrown at California, but man, you guys have regulations up the wazoo!
Properly done, solar calculation is just math. In some places the math works. In some places the math doesn't work.
We agree on Putin. And you bring up some good points on grid demand with EVs that is good food for thought.
Interesting facts:
The US imports about 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil and other petroleum products from Russia
The Keystone Pipeline would have carried about 830,000 barrels per day from Canada...
In 2020, the total U.S. annual petroleum production was greater than total petroleum consumption
The US imports about 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil and other petroleum products from Russia
The Keystone Pipeline would have carried about 830,000 barrels per day from Canada...
In 2020, the total U.S. annual petroleum production was greater than total petroleum consumption
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
I thought CA was mainly an income tax state, but it appears that property tax is a pretty good chunk of local revenue. Do you tell the local tax appraiser when you remodel the inside of your home?
If not, isn't that beating the system?
Adding flooring, fixtures in a kitchen or bath, paint, does not require a permit. Opening walls, changing plumbing, remodeling the bathroom and plumbing like a new floor pan does require a permit. And yes, I have every permit required for this property. It was purely selfish. For one the insurance company has to accept the upgrade as legal, and for two when I go to sell it, the appraiser and buyer can't start whittling the value down because something isn't permitted. 35+ years in the mortgage industry I have seen many sales put on hold because of missing permits or illegal upgrades.
yeah but, everyone seems to think "why aren't we keeping it here?"
the answer to that question is because of the different types of oil that exist. in plain language, some oils make better gasoline than others and some oils make better jet fuel gasoline than others
you export what you don't need and import what you do
An Introduction to the Different Types of Crude Oil
Though we have a tendency to lump together all varieties of oil under a single, three-letter-word, there are in fact a multitude of different strains of crude oil. It can vary hugely in density and...
www.petro-online.com
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
if we go political the thread ends.
reader2580
Well-known member
I went solar to hopefully lower my carbon footprint. If I end up paying off my costs and get some "free" electricity that will be a bonus. I have debt for the solar. A lot of people would say I should have invested the money instead, but it is almost certainty I would not have invested the money.
petee_c
Well-known member
I too am looking for quotes for roof mounted solar....
My roof is large, but not ideal for solar due to location 43.5N, and some fairly tall trees on the neighbors property. I hope to produce about 13kWh/yr from a 15kW array with panels facing E,W,S. It will be a grid tie system, with ok money for the power I put into the grid.
We currently only have a $5K grant from the Canadian Govt for "Greener Homes" initiative., but there was a budget announcement last year, that the CMHC (Canadian mortgage and Home Corporation) - another Govt agency was going to provide interest free loans of up to $40K for green initiatives to reduce green house gases, of which a solar install would apply. Hopefully more details in the spring.
Right now, in a holding pattern, waiting for my home energy audit before I proceed... (pre-requisite for the $5K grant)
My roof is large, but not ideal for solar due to location 43.5N, and some fairly tall trees on the neighbors property. I hope to produce about 13kWh/yr from a 15kW array with panels facing E,W,S. It will be a grid tie system, with ok money for the power I put into the grid.
We currently only have a $5K grant from the Canadian Govt for "Greener Homes" initiative., but there was a budget announcement last year, that the CMHC (Canadian mortgage and Home Corporation) - another Govt agency was going to provide interest free loans of up to $40K for green initiatives to reduce green house gases, of which a solar install would apply. Hopefully more details in the spring.
Right now, in a holding pattern, waiting for my home energy audit before I proceed... (pre-requisite for the $5K grant)
frankd
Well-known member
We had solar installed about 3 years ago and so far are very happy. Our bill went from an average of $200/month to $13/month. The $13 is just the connection fee to stay tied to the grid. I'm figuring our break even point to be about 6 years assuming a 2% increase in electic cost per year.
For us it made sense but when we installed our solar we got a 30% federal rebate and $5,000 rebate from NY State. So the $28,000 system only ended up costing us $14,600.
We went with panasonic panels that have a 20 year warranty. Other companies offered similar warranties if I remember correctly but alot of those companies were newer and we werent sure if they'd be around that long. We've spoken to several neighbors that have systems (as old as 15 years) and not one of them has every needed to do any sort of maintenance or repair... so I'm not too concerned about that.
For us it made sense but when we installed our solar we got a 30% federal rebate and $5,000 rebate from NY State. So the $28,000 system only ended up costing us $14,600.
We went with panasonic panels that have a 20 year warranty. Other companies offered similar warranties if I remember correctly but alot of those companies were newer and we werent sure if they'd be around that long. We've spoken to several neighbors that have systems (as old as 15 years) and not one of them has every needed to do any sort of maintenance or repair... so I'm not too concerned about that.
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FredWanaker
Well-known member
the only thing I would suggest today is buy panels that are made anywhere except Russia or China.
dcg9381
Well-known member
Ignoring the Russia bait.
I started off by installing USA built panels, IE - Sharp.. Who shortly stopped making them in the USA (around 2014). So don't count on your US guarantees.
After that, I gave up. And look, I "get it" with many China based electronics, but China can produce some darn good stuff, when someone gets involved in their manufacturing processes and locks them to materials and production methods. I am for "branded" panels with a manufacturer that has some income that can (probably) back them, but these days I'll bet there is a whole bunch of China in Ford's electronics these days....
Try to buy a refrigerator or oven that wasn't made in China.
Going solar doesn't lower your carbon footprint, what do you think solar panels are made from? Where do you think the energy comes from to produce solar panels, and then ship them to your house? Also consider that power generation by way of fossil fuels isn't shut down because you are using solar a handful of hours per day, so your "offset" of solar is really just creating incremental demand/use of fossil fuels and resources.
Not sure if this is political or not but people think buying solar and EVs is doing something to the environment...and it is, but at this point it's just using more fossil fuels to create something that didn't exist, and isn't reducing our current consumption. It's a net negative at this point until you can store energy and reduce production to offset.
